2012 NFL Draft Review Part 4 of 4 – Early Conclusions for the NFC South and NFC West

It won’t be until June before our 67 page NFL Draft Report is completed.  Meanwhile, here are the preliminary thoughts for each team.

This is Part four of a four part series.  The AFC teams and other NFC Divisions can be found in a earlier blogs.

Atlanta:

What they did right: Without a pick until late in round two, Atlanta did the best it could, grabbing a potential pass rush specialist, a draft dropping Center (Konz) who some people had in the 1st round and a FB they hope will help them improve in short yardage situations.

What they did wrong: Four of six selections were drafted too early.  Atlanta split picks evenly between offense and defense but the defense needed more.  They failed to address some key free agency losses.

Best Pick: Center Konz

Worst Pick: Tackle Holmes

One Sentence Summary: Poised to take advantage of the troubles in New Orleans, these Falcons lost ground in free agency and had a lackluster draft.

Carolina:

What they did right: In 2011 the Panthers misfired often on draft day.  Of course that was masked by Cam Newton’s fantastic debut.  Carolina did better this time, bolstering the OL and LB early, adding a dynamic return man and getting a promising CB.

What they did wrong: They traded up for a DE (Alexander) who looks more like a role player.  Kuechly is a solid player but for this team was DL/DT a better place to go?  Alexander alone doesn’t make the DL better.  Second tier needs of OLB and Tight End were not addressed, although Kuechly may be tried outside.

Best Pick: LB Kuechly

Worst Pick: Alexander went too high, and an unrated Punter was drafted at 207 when this team had other needs.

One Sentence Summary: As long as Cam beats the sophomore slump (and the film teams have on him) then Carolina can move up with Atlanta and New Orleans looking vulnerable.

New Orleans:

What they did right: This is a stretch, but trading the 2012 1st round pick LAST YEAR for RB Ingram was in hindsight, fantastic.  That pick was as good as gone once “Bounty-Gate” surfaced.

What they did wrong: Staying just with the draft, the Saints did little to help them in the back seven.  Reaching as they did 3 times in this draft is never good when the total number of picks is just 5.

Best Pick: WR Nick Toon, a nice fit in this system.

Worst Pick: DT Hicks.  Hicks may turn out fine, but you can’t take a developmental player right out of the box.

One Sentence Summary: The team took LB Lofton from rival Atlanta but until Drew Brees is signed where does the leadership come from?

Tampa Bay:

What they did right: Tampa drafted 3 possibly ready to go players and another 3 who can contribute.  The trade up to get RB Martin was solid.  RB Blount is not the new staff’s’ type and Tampa knew the New York Giants were going to take him at pick 32.  Ditto with LB David, who never would have been available 10 picks later at Tampa’s choice. 

What they did wrong: Barron or Claiborne?  Both are good players but Claiborne was higher rated. 

Best Pick: Safety Barron

Worst Pick: TE Dunsmore, but he’s not horrible and the pick was at #233.

One Sentence Summary: The NFC South race just got tighter as Tampa closes the gap, as long as the new staff can assimilate quickly to the NFL way of life.

Arizona:

What they did right: It was a tough choice early with several OL available but Floyd makes this offense dangerous.  Arizona went 3 times late to try and help the OL and all 3 are rated! 

What they did wrong: No LB’s were added.  Arizona could have gone in another direction at pick #80, or selected a higher rated CB. 

Best Pick: WR Floyd

Worst Pick: None!  Even scatter-armed QB Lindley was picked by the right team, with WR’s capable of adjusting to his throws.

One Sentence Summary: Arizona is a playoff team IF Kolb delivers and if the Pittsburgh connection at defensive coordinator pays off.

St. Louis:

What they did right: The team got better with this draft, and any holes remaining will be fixed with a pair of 1st round choices in each of the next two drafts.  Brockers should help fix an awful run D.  Unlike Houston, who REALLY needed quality WR’s, the Rams, with Quick and Givens blew them away.  Pead adds critical speed.  CB’s Johnson and especially Jenkins are risks, but both are highly rated (by us) and together with new Ram Finnegan this secondary might really improve. 

What they did wrong: The Rams could have done more, simply by delaying taking Quick by just 12 picks,  That gets them Alabama’s Upshaw in an area of need!  STL could have done better for the OL.  This could have been magic!

Best Pick: Maybe DT Brockers, but it’s close with a few others.

Worst Pick: OT Watkins was chosen far too early at #150.

One Sentence Summary: The Rams are not so quietly building a team that might be in the playoff mix each and every year, soon!

San Francisco:

What they did right: SF got faster, both with WR Jenkins and RB James. 

What they did wrong: SF did not properly address OL at least not with highly rated players.  The same holds true for CB.  Only 7th round pick Cam Johnson was a value pick.

Best Pick: WR Jenkins, and he might be the only contributing pick if things go poorly.

Worst Pick: OG Looney.  Some like him, but at #117?

One Sentence Summary: There’s no question that Harbaugh can coach, but if future drafts continue to show poor quantity then the staff will be tested even more.

Seattle:

What they did right: The betting proposition on Bruce Irvin was over or under pick 54.5.  Our Intel said he was going between 27 and 35, and our value on him was between 35 and 40.  THAT WAS FUN!  This heading asked what Seattle did right.  As far as we know, Pete Carroll has his health, and that can never be underestimated.

What they did wrong: Show up?  Most picks were wasted (Wilson, especially on day #2) chosen too early, or should never have been chosen!  Seattle actually hit our need board, but there are severe differences in who they drafted and who we would have drafted.

Best Pick: RB Turbin.  This position was thin and Turbin might be the answer.

Worst Pick: Was QB Wilson worth a 3rd round pick?  Is he that much better than Jackson and the recently signed Flynn?

One Sentence Summary: Carroll can coach, but the talent gap has sunk below Arizona’s and might soon be passed by the draft rich Rams.

2012 NFL Draft – Day One Review and Day Two Pick By Pick Preview

This is one of our favorite reports.  Hope you enjoy it, and feel free to comment back to us as well as pass it along to others!

NFL DRAFT – DAY TWO –  

This report resets the table for day two of the draft.  We’ll go pick by pick, with early impressions from day one, coupled with looks for day two of the draft.

Round One and Two Quick Thoughts:

• Cleveland panicked, TWICE.  They traded four for one to go up one spot, and took QB Weeden too early at #22 with some nice talent left on the board.  Still, Richardson is a potential star as a rookie and Weeden is mature enough to unseat McCoy with better arm strength.
• The position which went ignored early was definitely OL.  A rather low four OL were selected, with the 2^nd OL coming off very late at #23.
• Surprises in round one included Weeden, but bigger shocks were Irvin at #15 and Jenkins at #30.  Not surprisingly, Seattle and SF, two very unpredictable draft teams were the culprits.
• Last year we listed 12 players up in this spot that would be high target picks.  All were gone by pick #55.  Normally our short list does not get taken that fast.  On our short list this year (those we like, by position) are WR Randle, TE Fleener, OG Glenn, OG Silatolu, DE Curry, DT Still, LB Upshaw, and for those craving CB, UCF CB Josh Robinson.  Curry may dip a bit.
• Other players expected to go high might include: Troubled CB Jenkins, fast WR Hill, project DT Worthy, good LB David, top rated OC Konz, decent DL Reyes, and Clemson DT Branch.
• Round two positional runs will include WR and OL.  Day two positional runs will also include CB and DL.

BONUS ADDITION:

Right at press time we have decided to add a column entitled “Experts Say”.  Four respected sources have offered up round two mocks.  We have added their thoughts to the bottom of each pick in round two, below.  Our analysis was completed PRIOR to compiling this information.  Feel free to have this report handy while viewing round two to see how everything plays out!

33: St. Louis

Round one impression: Jeff Fisher likes to do two things.  1^st, he likes to stockpile picks, and so trading out of #6 was not a surprise.  2^nd, he loves depth along the DL.  Brockers (14) is raw but can stop the run, something the Rams have not done well of late.

Round two look: The Rams may get calls for this pick, but with 33, 39 and 45 need to stay and pick.  They can solidify the OL right now, or look at draft dropper Upshaw as having some value.

 “Experts Say”: WR Hill (2X), WR Randle, OG/OT Glenn.  All three have talent but WR could be available later in the round.

THE PICK:

34: Indy

Round one impression: Drafting QB Luck (1) was easy.  Now let’s see what they do.

Round two look: Luck would love to see Stanford teammate TE Fleener here, but it’s time to get bigger on defense.  DL Branch, Still, Worthy, Reyes or NT Ta’amu are all on our radar screen.

“Experts Say”: TE Fleener.  All four “experts” agree!  The need is there, but what about DL?

THE PICK:

35: Baltimore

Round one impression: Traded down from #29, picking up this pick plus #98 in the early 4^th round.  We “warned” readers about their trade out of the 1^st round tendency.

Round two look: A recurring theme in this round might be all the talent left along the OL, the remaining possibilities along the DL, and the next wave of risky CB’s.  OG Silatolu would fit here.

 “Experts Say”: OC Konz (3X), OT Martin.  Konz was linked to them at #29.  He’s the favorite.

THE PICK:

36: Denver

Round one impression: AWFUL!  Denver traded down twice, so far adding 36 and 101 for pick 25.  Denver’s trade with Tampa (31, 126 for 36, 101) represented negative value!

Round two look: So far they have yet to miss on a DT, as none were selected between picks 25 and 32.  They missed DE’s Perry and Mercilus.  They need multiple bodies along the DL.

 “Experts Say”: DT Reyes (3X), DT Worthy.  Denver has to make DT an immediate priority.

THE PICK:

37: Cleveland

Round one impression: We love Richardson (4), and think Weeden (22) may unseat McCoy, although that’s not a given.  What we dislike is giving so much (118, 139, 211) to move up one spot, and not using #22 on a different player.  With little competition for QB this early, we would have stayed at #4, using picks to move up from #37 to get Weeden, as we could have easily outbid Tampa to get to #31.

Round two look: They could go WR (our choice, they need multiple picks here), but OG and RT need some help as well and nice talent remains at each spot.

 “Experts Say”: WR Randle (2X), OT Martin, OG/OT Glenn.  These picks again make sense.

THE PICK:

38: Jacksonville

Round one impression: We noted that the Jags have trouble moving down and find it far easier to move up.  Trading 7, 101, 228 to get WR Claiborne (5) was acceptable value, and fills a strong need.

Round two look: They have three choices: OL, sack help, or DB.  We think for this team adding someone who can get to opposing QB’s makes the most sense, although there may still be OL value.

 “Experts Say”: DE Branch (2X), CB Robinson, OLB/DE Upshaw: The target areas make sense, but the Jags are not that predictable after the 1^st round.

THE PICK:

39: St. Louis

Round one impression: See Pick #33, above.

Round two look: This round must see them get an OG, with one of the other picks for an OLB.  LB David might be an excellent look here.

“Experts Say”: OG/OT Glenn (2X), CB Jenkins, WR Hill.  These players all have talent.

THE PICK:

40: Carolina

Round one impression: No one had LB Kuechly (9) going here!  OLB is a need and Kuechly can play there but may be best suited for ILB.  We’re disappointed they didn’t try to trade down a bit, recouping their lost 3^rd round pick.

Round two look: The Panthers next pick at 104 so trading down should be an option.  There are many needs still left to be filled, so the most important thing is to get a highly rated player!

 “Experts Say”: DT Still, DT Worthy, CB Trumaine Johnson, WR Jeffrey.  We could live with any of the four, but for THIS team, talented but raw CB Johnson may be too much of a reach.

THE PICK:

41: Buffalo

Round one impression: It became evident that the Bills wanted Kalil but not Reiff (short arms).  Gilmore (10) was nearly as high a need and the supply and demand at CB was such that Buffalo needed to act early.

Round two look: They still need to select either OL or OLB before looking at the deep WR crop.

 “Experts Say”: OT Martin (2X), WR Quick, OT Adams.  Quick is no different than a dozen other WR’s at this point.  We rate Adams and Martin about the same.

THE PICK:

42: Miami

Round one impression: There really was no choice.  The city cried out for QB.  Hopefully Tannehill (8) can live up to expectations while at the same time not being forced to start as a rookie.

Round two look: We’d look either at WR or OL.  Maybe LSU WR Randle will still be on the board.

 “Experts Say”: OT Massie (2X), WR Jeffrey, DE Branch.  Can Miami take any of these players and fix work ethic flaws?  All four of these picks have that as an issue.  Maybe they need to go safer here.

THE PICK:

43: Seattle

Round one impression: What was that!  Seattle traded down from #12, acquiring picks 15, 114, and 172 and that was fine, but OLB/DE Irvin was selected way too early!  He started six games in college, and has much to learn.  He can be a situational pass rusher as a rookie, but also could have been drafted at #25.  In fact, the over-under on his draft pick selection was a whopping 54 ½.  Our Intel said he was going between 27 and 35, and we appreciate the $$$.

Round two look: Who knows?  They probably trade UP given the extra picks they have, but who for?  Could the target at least be a bit higher rated, with some value?

 “Experts Say”: DT Worthy, OLB David, OLB Brown, LB Wagner.  Guessing what this draft team will do is not going to be easy.

THE PICK:

44: Kansas City

Round one impression: KC badly needed a NT and Poe (11) clearly is the NT mold of the draft.  Primed to make this workout warrior’s draft rating go down if he was selected by most teams, we probably elevate him because of the fit here.  Can his production improve?

Round two look: When should they look for a QB?  Maybe they wait now until the 2013 draft as we are not that high on the rest of this crop.  We’d go pass rusher or CB with this pick.

“Experts Say”: ILB Kendricks (2X), OG Silatolu, TE Allen.  Like we said in the opener, we write our full report BEFORE looking at the new mocks.  Silatolu and even Allen would help, but the needs we show run deeper then the positions given by the panel of experts.

THE PICK:

45: St. Louis

Round one impression: See pick #33, above.

Round two look: Have they addressed OG and OLB?  If so, then DT, CB or WR can be the pick here.

“Experts Say”: RB Lamar Miller (2X), OLB David, CB Fleming.  OLB David is the best fit.  We have too many CB’s rated ahead of Fleming to consider him in the 2^nd round.

THE PICK:

46: Philadelphia

Round one impression: Philly coveted Cox for a week and feels good about only having to trade up three spots to get him (12).  The cost of 15, 114, and 172 was decent only because they kept picks 46, 51, and 88.

Round two look: With picks 46 and 51 the Eagles need to address OLB and OT.  Maybe they will trade back, but for us, we look at OT/OG Glenn, OT Adams, LB’s Brown, Lewis and Spence, at least for starters.  LB David can be included, but we suspect a few of these guys will be gone by #46.

 “Experts Say”: DE Curry (2X), OLB David, QB Cousins.  We’d pass on Cousins for this team.  The other two, or our players listed above would be solid fits.

THE PICK:

47: New York Jets

Round one impression: The Jets surprised us a bit by not trading up.  DE Coples (16) is another that we might raise in the rankings since he could thrive in a Rex Ryan system.

Round two look: Three top needs remain: WR, run blocking OL and a front seven run stopper.  There should be a few options in at least two of these areas.

“Experts Say”: WR Hill, WR Jeffrey, OG Silatolu, OLB/DE Upshaw.  This would be a big fall for Upshaw.  Silatolu would be a nice fit.  Jeffrey is highly rated by us, but may not thrive on this team.

THE PICK:

48: New England

Round one impression: SHOCK!  We knew the Pats would trade, but going up twice is amazing.  Perhaps they have found some of our printed articles?  They traded 27, 31, 93, and 126 for picks 21 and 25.  DE Jones is a solid player and less of a risk than other DL in this draft, but also has less of a ceiling.  LB Hightower, available after Pittsburgh went in a different direction is a great fit!

Round two look: Would you believe that this pick and pick #62 later in this round is all the Pats have left?  Some teams aren’t even drafting until picks 89 and 95.  OL and CB are areas they need to address, but now we think they have to find some trade partners to acquire a couple more picks, unless they can get a draft dropper at either position when on the clock.

“Experts Say”: CB Hayward (2X), CB Trumaine Johnson, OG Silatolu.  All players fit our need board.  They might be able to trade down for CB, but OL is going to lose talent.

THE PICK: 

49: San Diego

Round one impression: The hope is DE/OLB Ingram (18) is what English never became and is even better than that.  Ingram has experience but in all his time at South Carolina only started one season.

Round two look: It’s win now or else for GM Smith, so can we expect a trade UP?  The LT need is a big one.  Should WR Randle fall to this spot that would be a nice option.

“Experts Say”: OC Konz, OT Schwartz, NT Ta’Amu, CB Boykin.  As stated above, we don’t expect SD to stay at #49.  I’d like to see them move up for someone stronger along the OL or at CB.

THE PICK:

50: Chicago

Round one impression: The old draft team was “famous” for botching the 1^st round, with seven of nine such selections busts!  The new draft team is off to an auspicious start, as DE/OLB McClellin (19) was selected at least 10-15 spots too high.  Some teams are not good at manipulating the draft board.

Round two look: The Bears could have had a stud OL and now must hope that one falls to them.  DB is an almost equal area of need but there is more risk involved here and we’re not sure this draft team can handle that risk.

“Experts Say”: WR Randle, WR Streeter, WR Jeffrey, CB Jenkins.  We’re not on the same page as the draft experts.  As it is, we’re pretty scared about what the Bears might end up with.

THE PICK:

51: Philly

Round one impression: See pick 46, above.

Round two look: See pick 46, above.

“Experts Say”: CB Jenkins, CB Trumaine Johnson, CB Josh Robinson, RB Pierce.  Except for Pierce, these picks are all very talented.  They don’t fit our primary need areas but Jenkins and Robinson have clear value for us at #51 for this team in particular.

THE PICK:

52: Tennessee

Round one impression: WR Wright (20) is a fine player but WR was not one of our immediate need areas for the Titans.  Perhaps they coveted CB Kirkpatrick but he was chosen at #17.

Round two look: The new draft team has several needs to fill.  Hopefully going with the best value will net them a solid player.  CB, LB and OG are three possibilities, but where they go is anyone’s guess.

“Experts Say”: DT Still (3X), CB Josh Robinson.  DT Still has value at #52.  CB Robinson fits a need and we like him, possibly as the best of the next tier of CB’s.

THE PICK:

53: Cincy

Round one impression: It sure seemed clear to me.  Cincy needed to address OL, CB and WR with picks 17 and 21.  OL was wide open.  WR was deep.  At CB, only Kirkpatrick was left on the board as a legit 1^st round guy and if the Bengals waited until pick 21 they might miss him.  At +6.61 to 1, they took Kirkpatrick and boy is it fun to know what this team likes to do each and every draft year!  Cincy did get its OG next, but not before trading pick 21 for picks 27 and 93.  RG Zeitler is strong and can run block, but did Cincy make a mistake by not taking stud OG DeCastro?  Only time will tell.

Round two look: We “suspect” this is where Cincy gets its WR.  We’d like to see them look long and hard at RB and also for a draft dropping DL, with WR best filled a bit later in the draft?

“Experts Say”: OLB/DE Upshaw (2X), OLB Zach Brown, DE Curry.  Can Upshaw really last this long?  I think this is for a WR.  We liked Jenkins here but he’s in SF.  What about Oklahoma’s Broyles, who could use this year to rebound from injury but after that he’s a solid #2 prospect.

THE PICK:

54: Detroit

Round one impression: CHICKENS!  The Lions love to move up on draft day but couldn’t get ahead of Cincy to take CB Kirkpatrick.  Considering Seattle reached at 15 for their player, a trade with the Seahawks seemed possible.  Luckily for the Lions, OT Reiff (23) fell like all the OL in this draft.  Detroit’s #2 need was for OT.

Round two look: We’re waiting?  The two CB’s that strike our fancy here are CB Robinson or Montana’s Johnson.  Robinson is super fast and physical but a zone CB.  Johnson is borderline slow and raw but with upside.  Sorry Detroit, but it’s all developmental CB’s now with the top choices gone.

“Experts Say”: DT Branch, CB Boykin, OT Adams, OG Osemele.  Another OL?  One would think the Lions have multiple needs.  Please find a 2^nd tier CB!

THE PICK:

55: Atlanta

Round one impression: No pick.  Traded their #1 pick last year to move up for WR Julio Jones.

Round two look: Atlanta needs someone along their OL that can help them pick up 3^rd and short.  Adding a pass rusher is another option.

“Experts Say”: OG Osemele (2X), OT Massie, TE Allen.  OG Osemele is versatile enough to play OT.

THE PICK:

56: Pittsburgh

Round one impression: How about WOW!  If anyone has been reading the pre-draft materials then it’s already known how we feel about OG DeCastro.  This was the best pick in the 1^st round!  Destined to get LB Hightower, even Pittsburgh changed gears once DeCastro (24) was available.  Great job!

Round two look: Pittsburgh took two CB’s in last years draft but we were not crazy about either one of them.  Unfortunately, there’s not much to choose from right now other than potential help.  This pick can go in many logical directions.  They include: DL, because of age; LB, due to recent cuts; WR, with the anticipation that Wallace is gone after this upcoming season, or RB, with major uncertainty here.

“Experts Say”: OLB R. Lewis, OT Adams, OT Massie, DT Thompson.  We suspect the pick could be for a front seven defensive player.  That’s not bad, but what about a rated RB?

THE PICK:

57: Denver

Round one impression:  See pick 36, above.

Round two look: Denver is looking at RB, but the pick really should be for another DL or a LB.

“Experts Say”: RB Lamar Miller, CB Trumaine Johnson, DT Thompson, QB Osweiler.  Denver needs too much help now to go after a QB in this QB weak draft.  Sorry, but adding multiple DL is our preferred drafting strategy for this team.

THE PICK:

58: Houston

Round one impression: Right away we described DE Mercilus (26) as “another toy for Wade Phillips to play with”.  The NCAA sack leader last year may thrive in Houston’s scheme.  As we said in our Intel report, Houston was looking at him as another Aldon Smith.  We still preferred WR Randle.

Round two look: They probably look DT, WR or right side OL where they lost multiple players.  OL and WR could be adequately filled with this pick and pick #76 if they choose the right players.

“Experts Say”: OT Adams, OT Sanders, OT Schwartz, WR Streeter.  Adams would represent value at this pick.  The other OT’s can be passed on at this spot.  WR Streeter is fast, but raw and should have stayed in school.  For THIS team we want a more polished WR.  Givens or Criner have possibilities.

THE PICK:

59: Green Bay

Round one impression: DE Perry (28) is not a surprise, but trading up was preferred, as Green Bay does not need 12 picks.

Round two look: We’re not sure Perry fills the run D need.  OL and RB are needs, but CB and safety represent more immediate needs.  CB would be our 1^st look.

“Experts Say”: DE/DT Wolfe (2X), DL Reyes, RB L. James.  The “experts” say an interchangeable DL is the fit.  Reyes is better at stopping the run as opposed to Wolfe.  If we’re the GM this HAS to be the 1^st of a couple of move ups to get more impact.  Please don’t stay with 12 picks.

THE PICK:

60: Baltimore

Round one impression: See pick 35, above.

Round two look: In addition to OL, Baltimore would be wise to target LB.  Other needs include DL depth and a decently rated DB.  LB’s tend to slip in the draft so OL at #35 and stud LB here can work.

“Experts Say”: ILB Kendricks (2X), Safety Janzen Jackson, WR Sanu.  Jackson is interesting but not our preferred look.  Sanu could actually be a great underneath complement to the speedy Smith and solid Boldin.  Getting a LB such as Kendricks best fits their needs.

THE PICK:

61: San Francisco

Round one impression: We said it in the preview!  As expected, the draft day team DID confuse the “experts”.  We like WR Jenkins (30), but not in the top 50!  Mel (sell out) Kiper noted that no one had Jenkins in the 1^st round, but that he was a consideration at the top of the 2^nd.  Thanks for lying!

Round two look: Like many teams, OL and DB are the need areas.  Can SF stay away from lower rated talent (last year four ratings of NR and just two players rated in single digits at any position)?

“Experts Say”: OG Osemele, OG Brooks, OG Silatolu, CB Hosley.  The experts hit our need areas just fine.  Silatolu was mocked a few times to SF at #30, so it’s doubtful he’s here now.  Let’s see what curveball SF throws here (do they trade up?).

THE PICK:

62: New England

Round one impression: See pick 48, above.

Round two look: As said earlier, New England has a pair of needs, but as of this writing, no more picks after this.  Closing up shop this early would be perhaps the biggest draft surprise of all.

“Experts Say”: Safety Taylor, CB Josh Robinson, OC Taylor, LB Zach Brown.  All four players have talent, and Josh Robinson would be a mini steal here.  Our Intel does show them taking a keen interest in the LSU Safety (Taylor).  This is a good draft if the Pats add a rated OL and DB somewhere in this draft (after a couple of trade downs?).

THE PICK:

63: New York Giants

Round one impression: We correctly pegged the NYG to go for RB help, but was mildly surprised they took RB Wilson (32) after coveted RB Martin (no matter what they say now) was gone, thanks to Tampa’s trade into #31.  Wilson is more of a risk-reward pick.  Coughlin won’t like the fumble issue.

Round two look: Probably this is for the best player available on their draft board, no matter the position.  There are no glaring needs, although they could draft DL in anticipation of Osi’s leaving.

“Experts Say”: TE Allen (2X), WR Sanu, CB Fleming.  The Giants resisted the urge to go TE at #32 and could do so here with the 2^nd best TE on the board.  That would not be our preference however.  We would not lock into any of the players listed by the experts for this team.

THE PICK:

Below is the list of teams currently without picks in round two.  They will be listed in draft order using the same recap and evaluation process as the teams above.  NOTE: Our final report this draft season will be to send this document out one more time, AFTER round two (probably Saturday or Sunday).  We will at that time fill in the names of who each team selected, and our initial impressions.  Enjoy!

66: Minnesota

Round one impression: Minny “stole” three picks from Cleveland (118, 139, 211) just to go down to #4 and select OT Kahil, they guy they wanted all along.  They traded 35 and 98 to go up to #29 and draft the 2^nd rated safety on most boards, versatile Harrison Smith.  Considering that the next rated Safety is not likely to come off the board until the 3^rd round, Minny played the supply and demand game very well.

Pick 66 look: DT, LB, #2 WR or CB are all in play.

THE PICK:

68: Tampa

Round one impression: Just like Minny, Tampa traded back just a bit in the 1^st round and traded up at the end of the 1^st round.  Thought to covet Claiborne, the Bucs wanted Barron (7) instead.  Both are solid, but we felt CB was the bigger need.  Tampa really wanted Richardson, or at least some RB to hopefully replace Blount, who doesn’t seem to fit the new staff’s style.  RB Martin (31) was chosen ahead of the NYG in the hope that he can develop into an every down back.

Pick 68 look: LB is the clear leader in need.  We’d look OLB 1^st and CB 2^nd.

THE PICK:

69: Washington

Round one impression: Washington outbid Cleveland for RG III (2).

Pick 69 look: The Redskins have six picks left, starting here and continuing with picks 102 and 109 next.  The biggest two needs have been well documented by us and read OL and DB.

THE PICK:

80: Arizona

Round one impression: Larry Fitzgerald wanted WR Floyd (13) if he fell to them.  The Cardinals said they would take him if that was the case, but still used almost all their time before making the pick.  Arizona may now be four receivers deep.

Pick 80 look: Our top needs would be OL and OLB/LB.  We’re down in the bottom half of round #3 but typically, rated talent in these areas can be found in the 3^rd round.

THE PICK:

81: Dallas

Round one impression: Dallas, like many other teams in this draft saw an opportunity to get a top rated player at a position of need.  Trading 14 and 45 to get CB Claiborne (6) was fair, and along with free agent signee Carr, makes the Cowboys much better in the secondary.

Pick 81 look: OG, DE and Safety are the primary areas of need right now.  DE is tough to fill this late, and the safety class is weak, so OG looks like the best option, at least at this pre-round two writing.

THE PICK:

89: New Orleans

Round one impression: No picks at all thus far, with the trade of the 1^st round pick for RB Ingram last year, and the forfeiting of the 2^nd round pick this year.

Pick 89 look: Luckily the Saints have no critical major needs, with OLB, CB and another WR on our short list of early needs.  Getting a decently rated OLB (Spence perhaps) is possible in late round three.

THE PICK:

95: Oakland:

Round one impression: No picks at all thus far, with the trade of the 1^st round pick for QB Palmer, the trade of the 2^nd round pick for extremely raw RB Jones, and utilization of the regular 3^rd round pick for the selection of QB Pryor in the supplemental draft.  Yet another QB (Campbell) cost them their 4^th round pick.  This pick is compensatory from the NFL and comes after round three is completed.

Pick 95 look: TE, OG, and RB for the offense, and a DL run stopper, OLB and at least one starting CB for the defense.  Free agency has not helped much from an impact standpoint.  Good luck!

THE PICK:

That’s it!  We’ll send out the report a 2^nd time with our round two impressions.  Enjoy the rest of the draft!

2012 Draft – What to look for: Scouting the teams

I’ve covered the draft for over 30 years, both in preview and review format.  The preview phase is OVER.  The review phase is just about to begin.

The review phase is most appropriately done team by team.  Not every player fits a team the same way.  Let me repeat: It matters not only when a player is drafted, but to what team, what scheme, and what coaching staff.  I have finalized my pre-draft rankings of each player, but depending on where they go, those ratings can change.  I’ve had success in doing this over the years, from moving Big Ben Roethlisberger up to #1 30 seconds after his best fit team (Pittsburgh) selected him, to last year moving a guy like WR/KR Cobb (Green Bay) up due to person-team fit.

Obviously, each NFL draft team wants to fill their draft needs and grade out as high as possible.  Then why do some teams completely blow it on draft day?  I often wonder if all GM’s see the big picture when they make their choices.  A movie writer (in my opinion) KNOWS how the story ends, and can work backward to make the storyline fit.  A good business executive charts what the company should look like it 6 months or a year and then works backward to put a design in place to make that happen.  Shouldn’t NFL GM’s be thinking the same thing.

As with every year I have expectations for each NFL team.  This report goes by Division, covering just a little of what I will be looking at for a many NFL teams during the draft.

AFC East:

Miami: Do they draft Tannehill?  If so, do they give him some WR’s, something NOT done in Jacksonville last year?

New England: Just once I’d like to see them draft for IMPACT!  Not only have they traded back far too often, costing them star players at RB and CB for example, but sitting on a 3rd round pick and drafting Ryan Mallett prevents this team from getting better, NOW.  New England was one play away from winning a pair of Super Bowls vs. the NYG.  What if they had just one more top draft pick?

New York Jets: My curiosity here is with the 10 picks.  Tired of seeing them draft an average of 4.6 players per year, it’s time to draft in quantity.  I’m also interested in their top selection.

AFC North:

Cleveland: What happens at picks 22/37?  Can Cleveland get better on offense?

Cincinnati: They have a chance to add major talent with picks 17 and 21.

AFC South:

Houston: It’s time to get that #2 WR.  My draft review hinges on Houston making this happen.

Indy: I am curious to see this new draft team in action.  Are the days of drafting lighter front seven defensive players and defensive backs who can’t cover at all over?

Jacksonville: Enough with the multiple small college picks.  It’s time to draft a WR and a CB with proven ability.

AFC West:

Denver: They have rented a defensive line for a half-dozen years.  Is there a plan in place this time?

KC: I’m mildly curious to see what they do at QB.  Why is no one talking about that position?

San Diego: This is it for GM Smith.  Picks 18 and 49 will become something else.  The players they get will help decide Smith’s and Norv Turner’s future.

NFC East:

Dallas: They’ll get a good player at #14, but must come out of this draft with rated players for their secondary.

New York Giants: I want to see how they handle the RB need and with what player.

NFC Central:

Detroit: Please tell me they are going to draft a CB, or 2, or 3, or 4?  If not, I need to get started early on the sarcasm part of their draft review.

Green Bay: Shouldn’t this be the year the GM trades UP and not down?  What would the Packers do with 12 new faces?  I will grade their draft based on the impact they get.

NFC South:

Carolina: Sitting at #9, the Panthers will/should have plenty of trade options.  The draft team selected way too many lower rated players in ’11 (after Cam).  Can we trust them to trade down at #9, and draft better players now?

NFC West:

Arizona/Seattle: They sit next to each other on draft day.  They share similar needs.  Will OG DeCastro be considered?  With Seattle, we expect some wheeling and dealing?

2012 NFL Draft Round One Preview

2012 NFL Draft Round One Preview.

2012 NFL Draft Round One Preview

2012 NFL Draft – Last minute thoughts for round one

There is less than 100 hours to go before the 2012 NFL Draft.  Here’s a short blog on a) what the team is thinking about and b) what WE would do at each pick.

1.                  Indy:

Intel: Taking Andrew Luck

US:  A) Prevent Jim Irsay from ever tweeting again

B) Take QB Luck

2.                  Washington:

Intel: Taking RG III

US:  A) Fire Mike Shanahan

B)    Take RG III and throw a party!

3.                  Minnesota:

Intel: Taking OT Kahil, but also considering WR Blackmon

US:  A)  Take OT Kahil

B)    Trade with Tampa to #5 (they go for RB) and take Kahil

4.                  Cleveland

Intel: Probably RB Richardson over WR Claiborne, but draft team is often indecisive and could try to get cute and trade down.

US:  A) Make draft team use all 13 picks WITHOUT trading

B)    Draft RB Richardson

5.                  Tampa

Intel: RB Richardson is their 1^st choice.  CB Claiborne is their 2^nd choice.

US:  A) Take CB Claiborne

B) Trade up to #3 if the price is reasonable and take RB Richardson

6.                  STL

Intel: Looking at WR Blackmon, WR Floyd, or trading down to get an impact DL/OLB.  Might also look at CB Claiborne but not RB Richardson?

US:  A) Take CB Claiborne if available

B) Take WR Blackmon, or trade back slightly and take WR Floyd, OG DeCastro or an impact DL

7.                  Jacksonville

Intel: Wants to trade back, but draft team not good at this.  Might go UP to get Blackmon or Claiborne.  Looking hard at DE/OLB Upshaw.

US:  A) Take WR Blackmon or WR Floyd

B) Fire the draft team if they do not take an impact WR

8.                  Miami

Intel: With his former college Head Coach now in Miami (Sherman), the Dolphins seem destined to take QB Tannehill.  If they pass, or if he’s chosen before #8 then Miami is looking DL/OLB, CB or WR.

US:  A) PASS on a QB, and take a WR or OG DeCastro.  OG is a vital need here and DeCastro      has Steve Hutchinson qualities.

B) Trade BACK a bit and then take Tannehill.  Franchise QB’s are hard to come by, but Tannehill is not the 2012 answer and may not be that kind of QB.

9.                  Carolina

Intel: Looking DL, maybe Cox.  Was looking at DT Poe but may have soured on him.  DL is the place they want to go.

US:  A) Trade BACK, but no later than #18 (SD), who could offer them a 2013 pick in the 1^st round considering AJ Smith is in a win now or be fired mode.  Other trading partners include Seattle, KC, Philly and the NYJ, all who may have specific players in mind.

B) Either way, we look at adding an impact DL, although if we trade back CB Gilmore or CB         Kirkpatrick will be fine choices.

10.              Buffalo

Intel: All signs have pointed to OT Reiff, but my sources tell me that his short arms are a concern and they may be willing to look elsewhere.  Some people were suggesting WR Floyd.  They could look CB or OLB.  OT Reiff did NOT work out with the Bills!

US:  A) They don’t usually trade, but moving down to the teams’ listed above in the Carolina preview is fine.  They can get an OLB or CB at any of the trade down spots.

B) If they stay, OT is a need so OT Reiff, while a risk, is still a fit.

11.              KC

Intel: Considering OG DeCastro and LB Kuechly, although Kuechly did not work out for the Chiefs!  Possibly considering QB Tannehill.

US:  A) Take QB Tannehill if available.  For THIS team, we like the move.  Cassell will not get any better and KC has enough other parts to take a QB risk.

B) If not Tannehill, consider DT/NT, sack help, LB or OG.  Poe is a NT, but his bust factor is too high.  Plenty of other options exist in these areas.

12.              Seattle

Intel: No one really knows what this draft team will do.  LB Kuechly is the favorite, but we think they may go DL or a LB with more sack promise.  DE Coples would be interesting.

US:  A) With just six draft picks, they could trade down to as low as #18 and pick up another 3^rd rounder, while still getting an impact front 7 player.

B) OG DeCastro could be considered.

13.              Arizona

Intel: Considering OL or WR Floyd.  DeCastro is in play.  An OLB is another option.

US:  A) Either DeCastro or an impact DE/OLB (preferably OLB) is our choice.

B) Could consider OT Reiff if Buffalo passes.  The OL allowed 54 sacks in ’11.

14.              Dallas

Intel: Safety Barron is the primary target.  We don’t believe the DL hype, but it might be in play, along with OL.

US:  A) Safety Barron or OG DeCastro

B) DL/DE is a need for us, so Ingram would fit.  We would strongly consider CB Gilmore or CB Kirkpatrick as well.

15.              Philly

Intel: Trading UP, with Cox or Ingram the likely target.  We are slightly discounting a target of ILB Kuechly (would move to OLB if selected here).

US:  A) DL recorded 46 of Philly’s 50 sacks in ’11.  We don’t need another at this time.  1^st looks for us include an OLB, Safety Barron, OT Reiff or OG DeCastro

B) In the highly unlikely event all options above are gone, we would hope Cleveland or someone else wants to give us a #1 pick next year.  Versatile OG/OT Glenn would be a lower option for us.

16.              NYJ

Intel: Wants to move UP.  No one can tell you exactly who they want, though many think they know.  DL, LB and even WR (Floyd) could be targets.

US: A) FORCE the NYJ to draft all ten players, with NO TRADES.  After selecting 23 players TOTAL in five years it is time to add depth.

B)    Cross our fingers and draft NT Poe.  He is not our favorite, but really fits this team and has the mobility to occupy blockers and make the other players better.

17.       Cincy

21.       Cincy

Intel: We lump these picks together.  We believe WR is in their blood and they will look once here.  The other choice is probably between CB and OL, with DL next.

US:  A) As we’ve stated, signing WR Wallace away from Pittsburgh would have been a no-brainer for us.  You hurt a rival and help yourself, have the cap space, and STILL have a #1 pick!  WOW.  The other option is to trade 17-21 to go UP for RB Richardson.  You STOLE an extra #1 from Oakland in the Palmer move, so dealing it for a 3-down impact RB is the 2^nd no-brainer.  This fits our #1 need.  They won’t do it, but as GM, we would!

B)    These are the positions and players on our draft board at 17/21: OG DeCastro, with OG Glenn farther down the list.  WR Wright, but not WR Randle for this team.  CB’s Gilmore and Kirkpatrick, but not Cincy CB Jenkins, who would be suspended eight times if drafted by this team!  DL/OLB, with names such as Ingram, Mercilus (lower), Perry (lower), Upshaw (likely gone), and Hightower.  This is a critical draft for Cincy.

18.              San Diego

Intel: AJ Smith, as mentioned, needs to win now or be fired.  He will look to trade UP if he can, and probably WILL make a deal.  Is their target WR Floyd or Safety Barron?  These players, along with perhaps a DL/LB are the target areas.

US:  A) Do NOT trade.  Take DeCastro if available or OT Reiff if he drops.

B) SS Barron is next on our list.  We wait on WR, and look DE or OLB if the names above are gone.

19.              Chicago

Intel: It’s a new draft team, so they may tip their hand closer to draft day and after we publish this report.  CB is a good guess, although a sleeper guess is DE Perry.  The only other area that really makes sense is OL.  The long shot here is WR Wright.

US:  A) Consider a small trade back.  Teams wanting this pick would clearly consider a top CB as well as perhaps a DE with pass rush skill or even a QB.  We need more picks.

B) Stay and draft an OL draft dropper, or take Kirkpatrick or Gilmore.

20.              Tennessee

Intel: Once thought to be DE, we think they are looking hard at DB.  They too have a new GM, so more information will slip through to us nearer to the draft.

US:  A) Our #1 need is CB.  Draft Gilmore or Kirkpatrick.

B) If both CB’s are gone, I draft an OLB with sack skill.  Many are available.

21.              Cincy

Intel: See Cincy at #17, above.

22.              Cleveland

Intel: With this draft team we would be shocked if we were right on the pick.  A trade would hardly surprise us, even with 13 picks.  WR, QB, and even TE are in play here, or with a trade down, but almost any position is possible.

US:  A) Shoot the draft team if they trade DOWN (violating the rule set above, pick #4)!

B) We would “consider” a move up for Tannehill if he got past KC at #11, but prefer to have added RB Richardson early and either WR Wright or an impact DL/OLB here.

23.              Detroit

Intel: They are thinking OL, DL or CB.  As Harry Hoo in Get Smart said, “Amazing”.

US:  A) Draft CB Kirkpatrick or CB Gilmore.

B) Do whatever it takes to draft CB Kirkpatrick or CB Gilmore.  If that does not happen, then the only thing we can do is repeat what we said in out 2011 NFL Draft Review.  Here it is:

As for CB, we were just informed of the real reason behind Detroit’s reluctance to EVER address this absolutely vital NFL position.  Michigan statute 25-AB179254633.2 reads as follows: It is forbidden by law for any professional football franchise in the state of Michigan to engage in the procurement of (talented) players whose sole purpose is to defend against the forward pass, which is now considered a legal maneuver in the game of professional football.  The penalty for such an action will be at a minimum 30 lashes, and at a maximum the team in question may be sentenced to playing additional games during the month of January.  Now we know!

24.              Pittsburgh

Intel: LB Hightower is getting the press, but another DL/OLB or an OL is possible.

US:  A) We’d prefer CB Gilmore or CB Kirkpatrick, even if it meant trading UP.  This team can handle the move up, just like they did a few years ago for Polamalu.

B)  Yes, we would consider DL or ILB Hightower, but a draft dropping OL would also receive strong consideration.

25.              Denver

Intel: It would be a major surprise if DL was not the choice.

US:  A) DL, DL or DL.  There is no other choice.

B)    See A), above.

26.              Houston

Intel: The intel goes in several different directions, from OL, to DE (Mercilus, similar to what Aldon Smith did for SF as a rookie) and to WR.  For now, Houston seems content to wait and see what position offers the best value.

US:  A) WR Wright or WR Randle.  Randle is a 2^nd rounder on most boards, but fits this team.  He has had subpar QB’s from LSU throw to him.

B)    We would strongly prefer the WR, since we’d asked for this forever.  Just look at the    options when stud WR Johnson went down.  Our much further down the list options are OL and DL, with DT Poe not necessarily a bad fit for someone like DC Wade Phillips.

27.            New England

31.            New England

Intel: We lump these picks together.  As we’ve said countless # of times, the Pats figure to use one pick and trade out of the 1^st round with the other.  The Pats love versatility and so guys like OT/OG Glenn, DE/OLB Perry and DT/DE Reyes are possibilities.  Only Reyes is receiving attention thus far.  OLB/DE McClellin may fit.  We see them looking for a lower level CB and a versatile Safety after the 1^st round.

US:  A) Trade UP!  Get impact!  Give us any one of CB Gilmore, CB Kirkpatrick, DE/OLB Ingram, or an Alabama LB.

B) Keep BOTH picks.  We have zero interest in trading out of the round.  These are the positions and players on our draft board at 27/31: OG Glenn, with OT Martin lower on our list.  DE/OLB Curry, DT Brockers, Still, or maybe a couple of others.  We won’t see a CB at 27/31, so that need has to be addressed twice later on.  Their two picks in the 2^nd round must include a CB, and should include WR Randle or similar or NT Chapman.  That is how we would approach this draft.

28.            Green Bay

Intel: DE/OLB is the area that they want to address.  I am hearing the name of Safety Harrison Smith an awful lot as well.

US:  A) Have GM Ted Thompson sign a document IN BLOOD that says he will exit this      draft with no more than seven or eight picks (they have 12).  They could trade back ONLY if the bounty includes a 1^st round pick in ’13 or possibly a 2^nd round pick from a perceived “poor” team.  Signing this frees us to move UP in the draft, and we consider that in the 1^st round for players such as CB Kirkpatrick or CB Gilmore, and yes, maybe a sack specialist.

B) If “forced” to stay at #28, we pick a DE with run stopping ability, or a sack specialist who has dropped or an OL who has dropped.  But we must get two CB’s     later, and trade up to ensure they are highly rated ones (Josh Robinson preferred).

29.            Baltimore

Intel: Most say it is a done deal for OC Konz.  We disagree.  We see them taking a draft dropper for value, trading slightly back, or to a lesser extent, slightly up if value exists.

US:  A) OG and 1-2 LB’s represent our top needs.  A draft dropping LB will be available.

B) Trade UP for DeCastro or the CB’s we have listed throughout this report.  Baltimore is so close, and can go for impact.

30            San Francisco

Intel: OL and WR are possibilities, but this secretive draft team could easily surprise.

US:  A) While WR and DL are needs, we get the WR later, and to get an impact DL we would have to trade up.  We look at OL 1^st (too many sacks allowed) and DL 2^nd.

B) Have a long discussion with Harbaugh about CB and include troubled CB Jenkins in the mix.  Trading up is an option for the top CB’s or DeCastro, or maybe take OC Konz?

31.           New England

Intel: See New England at #27, above.

32.           NYG

Intel: Hopefully not TE.  They have injuries that won’t heal soon, but what would they do with five TE’s in 2013?  They will lose DL/OLB after 2012 so this could be the target area.

US:  A) There is no need to switch from their best player available approach.  OL, DB and even the front seven on D are all in play.

B) If not satisfied, a RB fits perfectly in this spot.

2012 NFL SCHEDULE ANALYSIS Part II

The 2012 NFL Schedules came out on April 17^th.  This report takes a quick look at what each team’s schedule looks like.  Some interesting games will be noted, along with comments about the pace of the schedule, trap games, etc.   We go in alpha order.  This is part two – Part one, showcasing the first 16 teams was posted earlier today.

NOTE: Pre-draft Power ratings have been assigned.  Schedule difficulty has NOT been determined.  Sometime in May-June, after the draft has long been completed we will assign Post-draft Power ratings.  At that time we will compute the schedule difficulty for each team, obviously based on the opponents each team will face and their Power #’s, which are not based on the win-loss record of a year ago.  The post-draft ratings and schedule difficulty will remain in place until after week #3 of the pre-season.  At that time we will finalize our opening 2012 seasonal Power #’s and schedule difficulty.

MIAMI :

A FIRST LOOK AT THE 2012 SEASON: Miami and their new staff have an interesting schedule.  They open at Houston and then host Oakland and their new staff.  Next they host the NYJ.  Ex-HC Sparano is now the Jet’s OC and he brings Tebow and the Wildcat formation back with him.  Games at Arizona and Cincy won’t be easy although this team clearly has defensive talent.  Hosting STL before the bye should be interesting as it brings Jeff Fisher to town.  He turned down the coaching offer!  The game after the bye at the NYJ is favorable, with the Jets off a game at New England.  Miami’s prime time game is 11/15 at Buffalo.  December is not easy, but Miami may get to face ex-QB Henne when the Jags visit on 12/16.  Under “normal” circumstances this would be a team on the rise in our eyes.  They have a + point ratio and a -9 fumble ratio that could be corrected.  They actually closed ’11 with a Power # of 26.5, and had 28 potential.  For now we have them at 25, but will be curious to see how the draft goes and what August looks like.  Maybe they can have some hidden +’s, but will the new staff be ready to go?

MINNESOTA:

A FIRST LOOK AT THE 2012 SEASON: The ’12 schedule gives Minny a shot at a confidence building 2-0 start with games vs., Jacksonville and their new coach and at Indy and their new coach.  Week three sees Minny and LB coach Singletary hosting his former SF team.  That could be highly interesting.  Games 5-10 are before the bye and read Tennessee, at Washington, Arizona, Tampa (SNF), at Seattle and hosting Detroit.  If Peterson is healthy and if Ponder can improve perhaps Minny makes a little bit of noise with this schedule.  Remember, the Vikings open ’12 with a + point ratio.  Games 11-16 are far tougher, with road games vs. Chicago, GB, STL and Houston and home games vs. Chicago and GB.  What we don’t like is the defensive coaching staff and that awful pass D%.  The Power # could rise, but for now we have it at 20.

NEW ENGLAND:

A FIRST LOOK AT THE 2012 SEASON: By record the Pats have the NFL’s easiest schedule.  They open with three of four on the road (Tennessee, Baltimore in playoff revenge and Buffalo) so a fast start is not a guarantee.  They play just three teams who had winning records in ’11.  After Baltimore, it’s not until games 13 and 14 (Houston, at SF) that the Pats face winning teams.  Game #8 is in London vs. STL and is technically a road game for New England, giving them just seven true road games.  WR Manningham helped win the Super Bowl for the NYG and the Pats will see him and fellow ex-NYG Jacobs when they host SF.  New England’s only “trap” game may be the week after that when they travel to Jacksonville.  No team on their schedule will have a bye week prior to facing the Pats!  We will start New England with the 2^nd highest Power # (31) and could move it up if they actually stick around in the early part of the NFL draft and take highly rated players instead of trading back as usual.

NEW ORLEANS:

A FIRST LOOK AT THE 2012 SEASON: New Orleans will be challenged in ’12 thanks to coach and probable player suspensions but the schedule they were given is somewhat generous!  Games 1-3 are vs. Washington and a potential rookie QB, at Carolina and home to KC.  They play on SNF 10/7 vs. San Diego, meaning it’s Brees vs. Rivers, with ex-Charger Sproles also in the mix.  Games 7-13 are a bit trickier then people might think, and that is where New Orleans will either make or miss the playoffs.  It starts at Tampa and at Denver, with Denver having an enormous situational plus.  It continues with great road team Philly coming to town on MNF, followed by rival Atlanta with the Saints having one less day of preparation time.  The Saints must avoid a letdown heading to Oakland before facing a determined SF team, and later traveling to Atlanta and to the NYG.  Games 14-16 are easier but will it matter?  Will the upgrade at DC and team personnel trump all the turmoil?  We start the Saints at a Power # of 30, of course pending who will be suspended in the opening week and month of the season.

NYG:             

A FIRST LOOK AT THE 2012 SEASON: According to those who compute schedule strength just by won-loss records from the previous year, the NYG are the 1^st Super Bowl winning team to come back the next year with the NFL’s toughest schedule.  Once we do our post-draft Power #’s we will see where they are on our list, but suffice to say that games vs. the AFC Central and the NFC South will be challenging.  Don’t forget that SF’s 1^st place schedule also means revenge games for Green Bay and SF.  Still, games 1-5 are not bad, with the opener vs. Dallas, a Thursday game at Carolina, and extra time to prepare for the road affair at Philly.  When they visit SF the Giants will meet up with former teammates Jacobs and Manningham.  When they travel to Cincinnati on 11/11 they will bring ex-Bengal Keith Rivers with them.  The bye week is late, but at least when they host revenge-minded Green Bay they will have the extra time and the Packers will be off a road game at Detroit.  Perhaps the savvy Gaints survive all this, but the December slate is not conducive to a fast finish.  It reads at Washington on MNF, a short week before hosting New Orleans, at revenge-minded Atlanta, at Baltimore and home to Philly.  The Giants are a solid team that finished with a Power # of 28 after the ’11 regular season.  We’ll move it up now to 29.

NYJ:

A FIRST LOOK AT THE 2012 SEASON: The Jets had a + point ratio going for them in ’10, but the double digit turnover ratio angle was a negative last year.  There are no angles to report now, but the pre-bye schedule (weeks 1-8) could be a killer!  We’ll know early what Mark Sanchez’s confidence level will be after facing four of the top six point defenses from a year ago, back-to-back-to back-to back!  OUCH!  This happens in games 2-5, at Pittsburgh, at Miami, home to SF and home to Houston.  Week #7 is at New England and week #8 is home to Miami.  The Jets are awful past and present as a HF and Miami will be off a bye.  The schedule lightens up after the bye but still features five road games (two are back-to-back) and tough home games vs. New England on SNF and San Diego, also on SNF.  Do the Jets need to be a better team to mange this schedule?  The answer seems to be yes.  Our starting Power # is 27, but given the early schedule we may not keep it there come opening day.

OAKLAND:

A FIRST LOOK AT THE 2012 SEASON: Oakland once again opens the season by playing in the nightcap of the opening week MNF doubleheader.  Last year they snapped a string of eight opening day losses.  The staff is new and must come out ready to roll not only playing SD, but with the short week going to Miami, the host of veteran Pittsburgh and the trip to Denver.  These games will not be easy so having the bye after the 4^th game is a good chance for the new staff to regroup.  Games at Atlanta, KC and Baltimore will be tough, and the game hosting a probably fully stocked New Orleans team in week 11 will be tough as well.  Traveling to Cincy will be pressure packed and full of emotion for former Cincy QB Palmer and former Oakland HC Jackson.  Oakland gets three home games in a row after that but must be careful not to have an immediate letdown.  The final two games are at Carolina and SD.  With a – point ratio and a new staff once again we don’t have high expectations for ’12.  Oakland is barely participating in this draft as it is.  After ending ’11 with a Power # of 24.5 we start them now at 23.

PHILLY:

A FIRST LOOK AT THE 2012 SEASON: Philly continues to have a knack for winning the tough games and letting down in easier games.  This year their mantra should be to strive for greater consistency.  They have situational plusses opening at Cleveland, but situational minuses next, hosting Baltimore.  The last time they visited Arizona they were upset in the NFC Championship game.  Andy Reid is 13-0 SU off a bye and they face Atlanta this year in that scenario.  New Orleans is a solid team but the Eagles are amazing as a road dog, and 10-5 ATS as a MNF road dog.  Maybe that translates into a SU win.  They are strong at home on MNF and face Carolina at home week 12.  An interesting December game is hosting Cincy on a Thursday night.  Cincy is 7-3-1 SU in the series.  You ask about the tie?  That was the game QB McNabb found out NFL games can end in a tie!  Closing games are in Division vs. Washington and at the NYG.  Expectations should be high for the Eagles in ’12, with player continuity, a + point ratio, and an easy opportunity to erase a -14 turnover ratio.  The Power # starts at 30.

PITTSBURGH:

A FIRST LOOK AT THE 2012 SEASON: Pittsburgh has a tough 1^st six games, four of which are on the road.  They have trouble in road openers but do have overtime playoff revenge at Denver.  They struggle as a road favorite in October and must play at Cincy and Tennessee, both in prime time!  The battle vs. Philly is always tough.  This is an older team that has to play 13 games in a row beginning 10/7, so watch for late fatigue.  Games 8-12 are highly interesting.  They go to the NYG, face KC on MNF with former HC Haley now the Steeler’s OC, face Baltimore with one less day of focus, and have a trap game at Cleveland right between Baltimore games.  December continues tough with a host of SD and a trip to Dallas, but the closing games are home to Cincy and Cleveland.  We’ll start Pittsburgh with a Power # of 29, watching the OC transition and the new faces on defense.

SAN DIEGO:

A FIRST LOOK AT THE 2012 SEASON: San Diego’s schedule is fair and at 1^st glance, nicely paced.  They open at Oakland on MNF, and then host Tennessee, a team they’ve easily handled the last twenty years.  QB Rivers likes revenge games and he gets them week four at KC and week six at Denver.  Between those games the Chargers must travel to New Orleans and face old teammates Brees and Sproles.  Games 6-9 after the bye are manageable, with SD taking a trip to Tampa where Vincent Jackson now resides.  A three game stretch vs. physical Baltimore, home to Cincy and at Pittsburgh won’t be easy, and in fact SD has lost their last 14 regular season games at Pittsburgh.  SD closes at the physical NYJ and home to Oakland.  We’re used to setting Power #’s here around 30 but SD has regressed from that level.  Still, as the only AFC West team heading into the ’12 season without a – point ratio we are going to give them the top Divisional #, right now at 27.

ST LOUIS:

A FIRST LOOK AT THE 2012 SEASON: The Rams have started awfully slow lately but Jeff Fisher gets a September schedule that offers some hope.  Games 1-6 are at Detroit, Washington (new QB), at Chicago, Seattle, Arizona, and at Miami (new staff).  QB Bradford is healthy and in year #3 so maybe they can get to at least 3-3.  Unfortunately, the Rams wanted so badly to play in London that they gave up a home game this year and will return to London in the future.  The 2^nd half of the schedule is tougher.  Games 9-12 include a pair with SF along with a trip to play the Jets.  Games 13-16 feature three road games,  STL finished LAST with a Power # of 14.5 (circled, with Bradford out) in ’11.  We have them 27^th as of now, with a pre-draft Power # of 21.

SAN FRANCISCO:            

A FIRST LOOK AT THE 2012 SEASON: SF’s schedule has its good and bad points.  The good is that after playing at the NYJ on 9/30 the 49ers have just one more road game before 11/25.  Most of these five home games have situational plusses, and all except the revenge game vs. the NYG are against non-playoff teams from ’11.  The road game is also winnable, at Arizona.  The bad is playing a tough 1^st four games, playing four of five road games between weeks 11-15, and the overall schedule difficulty increase.  Games 1-4 are at GB, home to Harbaugh’s head coaching “friend” in Detroit, at Minny, where Mike Singletary now resides as LB coach, and at the NYJ.  Games 11-15 include a pair of back-to-back road trips.  The 1^st pair starts at New Orleans in an emotional game and then they need to regroup at STL.  The 2^nd pair sees them on the east coast at NE and then back on the west coast at Seattle.  Playing the AFC East, NFC North, New Orleans and the NYG makes this a tougher task than in ’11.  SF also has five prime time games.  The Power # is currently set at 29, still clearly higher than their Divisional foes.

SEATTLE:               

A FIRST LOOK AT THE 2012 SEASON: Seattle’s schedule isn’t bad, but the 1^st half of the schedule is definitely tougher than the 2^nd half.  Not one of these games is a guaranteed win, so Seattle better be ready at QB, WR and with special team play.  They host GB on MNF, meaning ex-Packer Flynn may be facing his old teammates.  The short week may hurt them, traveling to STL off this emotional game.  They are 0-2 at improved Carolina and after that play in succession New England, at SF and at Detroit.  This almost looks like a 2-6 start!  Three of the 1^st four games after the week 11 bye are on the road, but maybe only the game at Chicago will be a cold weather affair since the Buffalo game is in Toronto and they have a closeable roof.  Should Seattle still be in the wildcard and/or Divisional race, getting home games vs. SF and STL to close out the season is a good thing.  Again, like most teams with QB uncertainty, the Power # is a bit lower.  23 is our #, and the early schedule will test it.

TAMPA BAY:

A FIRST LOOK AT THE 2012 SEASON: Tampa has a new coach, and being from the college ranks we tend to feel a greater adjustment time may be necessary.  The team looks improved and certainly underachieved in ’11 so the potential for improvement is there.  The September schedule is not an easy one for a new staff, with games 2-4 at the NYG, at Dallas, and vs. their former coach Morris, now on the staff at Washington.  New coaches need an earlier bye week, so the week five bye is a good thing.  The rest of the schedule is fairly manageable.  The roughest stretch starts 11/18 at Carolina, but even that game has been winnable in the past.  Games after that include Atlanta, at Denver in possibly their only cold weather game, home to Philly and at New Orleans.  We’re setting a Power # of just 19 thus far, but so much needs to be deciphered before the real games start.  Plusses include free agency gains and a shot to fix a -16 turnover ratio, especially with a HC who had a string of + turnover ratios in college.  Minuses include a – point ratio (so they were even worse than their 4-12 record), and an adjustment time for the new staff, especially with a somewhat tricky early schedule.

TENNESSEEE

A FIRST LOOK AT THE 2012 SEASON: Tennessee has one of the toughest opening schedules for ’12.  They host three playoff teams (New England, Detroit, and Pittsburgh) and travel to four sites (SD, Houston, Minny and Buffalo) where they may just go about 1-3.  If they come away 3-4 after this the Titans could easily make a playoff push.  They will still have five Divisional games left, have a bye between their only back-to-back road games, and face just one team (at GB) that realistically would factor in the loss column.  Indy and Jacksonville have new staffs and the Titans play four games vs. these opponents as part of their final nine games.  There’s hope, IF they can get through the early schedule.  The Titans are an incomplete team but maybe with more upside at QB as compared to Power rated teams in the 23 range.  We are looking at 25 (average) as a start.

WASHINGTON:     

A FIRST LOOK AT THE 2012 SEASON: How will Mike Shanahan handle his young QB and RB’s this year?  Washington must play three of its first four games on the road, with game #4 at Tampa, where current DB coach Morris was the head guy last year.  Their 1^st Divisional game is not until week seven, at the NYG.  The Giants won’t take the Redskins lightly after going 0-2 vs. Washington.  Both were double digit losses!  The bye is late, at week 10.  Whatever the record is, the schedule-maker has done Washington a small favor, scheduling five of their six Divisional games in weeks 10-16.  This means the Redskins should stay motivated all season long.  The team looks improved and even with a new QB has a chance to make inroads toward fixing their -14 turnover ratio, but winning the close games requires strong 4^thquarter coaching adjustments plus clutch field goal kicking and this team suffers in both areas.  The Power # is the Power # is set at 23, with any adjustments to be made after August.

To Trade or Not to Trade: Which NFL teams might be trading on draft day

Today we look at the NFL Draft and the potential for teams to trade up or down on draft day.  This article will concentrate on the 1st round, but for some teams we will delve a little deeper into their war room philosophy.

We will go Division by Division, discussing the likelihood of trades.  Readers, feel free to comment, agree or disagree with our analysis.

AFC EAST:

Buffalo: Unlikely to trade out of the #10 spot, especially if OT Reiff is available.

Miami: 50% trade possibility, with a better chance moving DOWN, not up.  Currently, we think that even if they want QB Tannehill they will not want to part with early draft choices.

New England: 100% likely to trade in round #1.  The Pats are 90% likely to trade OUT of the round with one of their picks, and 10% likely to trade up a bit.  By drafts’ end we expect multiple trades resulting in more than six picks this year and an extra pick or two next year, PLUS one trade with the Eagles!

NYJ: 60% trade UP, 40% stay where they are at.  The Jets might target someone anytime from picks #8 through #14.  We also expect their ten draft choices to end up being seven or eight by drafts’ end.

AFC Central:

Baltimore: 75% stay where they are, 25% move out of round #1, as long as it’s not too far down.

Cincy: 95% stay in place for BOTH 1st round picks.  Cincy doesn’t trade much on draft day.

Cleveland: They should start drafting for IMPACT, but GM Holmgren likes to fool around on draft day.  We would stay and draft all 13 times.  60% they stay at #4, 40% they move back.  Pick #22 or #37 will be likely used for trade bait, up or down.

Pittsburgh: 80% shot they stay, with 20% shot moving UP.  Every once and a while they like to make a bold move.  For the entire draft they will not trade much, if at all.

AFC South:

Houston: 90% stay, but there is a 10% chance they are targeting OL, CB or WR and could move up.

Indy: Locked in for QB Luck, and grateful they picked this draft year to have the #1 overall pick.

Jacksonville: Stuck at #7, they have reached while in the top 10 in the past.  They say they want to trade down, but the draft team is not good at that.  We’ll say 60% stay, 25% move UP, 15% move down.  Later they will trade up, and later they will also select some small school long shots.

Tennessee: Likely to stay right where they are.

AFC West:

Denver: They need  Defensive Line help in the worst way.  85% chance they stay, with a 15% chance they need to move up to get a DL of their choice if they is a run on DL early.

Kansas City: 90% chance they stay, but that 10% chance to move UP is if they love Tannehill and decide either to go ahead of Miami, or trade to #9 or #10 if Miami passes on Tannehill.

Oakland: Does not pick until #95.  They’ll be sleeping in on draft day.

San Diego: AJ Smith WILL trade UP, either at #18 or #49.  There is a near 50% chance that he will sacrifice a high 2013 draft choice.  His future as GM depends on THIS year, so he won’t care much about 2013 at this point.

NFC East:

Dallas: Jerry has not traded as much lately.  We think there is a 90% chance they stay at #14.  Dallas may trade later in this draft.

NYG: 90 to 95% chance they make a pick at #32.

Philly: They could trade up or down at #15.  We expect five or six draft day trades (one with New England), with at least one 2013 3rd or 4th round choice added.  As of 4/17/12, we say 50% UP, 30% stay at #15, 20% down.

Washington: Locked in at #2 with one of our most favorite college players.  Later, we expect they might trade down so they can acquire a couple of more draft picks.

NFC Central:

Chicago: 90-95% chance they stay at #19.  It is a new draft team however.

Detroit: Maybe one day they will draft a CB in the 1st round?  If so, they may need to trade UP to get Gilmore or Kirkpatrick, especially with Jenkins dropping.  We’d love to see that, but give them just a 15-20% chance of trading up at #23.  We do think they may trade up later in the draft (probably to get a 2nd tier CB instead of these two?).

Green Bay: 70% chance they stay, and a 25% chance they move OUT of the round.  We repeat, GB does NOT need 12 new draft picks.  We would trade UP perhaps two or three times in this draft to get impact, including in round #1. We give them a 5% shot at moving up.

Minnesota: They want (or so they say) to move back from #3, but we think it’s 80-85% that they stay and draft OT Kahil.

NFC South:

Atlanta: No pick until late 2nd round (#55).

Carolina: Perhaps the most interesting spot of the draft as far as top 10 teams go.  Carolina will stay at #9 or move back.  KC, NYJ, and Philly are all possible trading partners.  Longer shots are Seattle, SD and even Cleveland if they want a stud player at #4 and Tannehill at #9 should Miami pass on him.  As of 4/16/12 we say 65% move DOWN, 35% they stay if they have someone in mind.

New Orleans: Does not pick until late Friday (#89).  Likely will be cashing bounty check from the past two-three years instead of watching the draft.

Tampa Bay: Stays and picks at #5 as long as RB Richardson and/or CB Claiborne are available.

NFC West:

Arizona: 95-100% chance they stay and pick.

STL: Fisher and the draft team are sending out all kinds of signals, but we think the decision hinges on what Cleveland does ahead of them.  They would like Claiborne, but may drop back if the choice is Blackmon or Floyd.  Call this 5% up, 60% stay, 35% move back.

SF: We hit PERFECTLY the trade for Kaeparnick weeks before the draft of ‘2011.  We could easily see team Harbaugh targeting someone and moving up in round #1.  Right now we’ll say 35-40% move up but otherwise we think they will stay and pick.

Seattle: Seattle may be the most likely team to involve current players in their draft day trades.  They can get a good player at #12, so we think it’s 70% stay, with 15% moving up and 15% moving down.  we do expect a few trades in subsequent rounds of this draft.