Today we look at the NFL Draft and the potential for teams to trade up or down on draft day. This article will concentrate on the 1st round, but for some teams we will delve a little deeper into their war room philosophy.
We will go Division by Division, discussing the likelihood of trades. Readers, feel free to comment, agree or disagree with our analysis.
Buffalo: Unlikely to trade out of the #10 spot, especially if OT Reiff is available.
Miami: 50% trade possibility, with a better chance moving DOWN, not up. Currently, we think that even if they want QB Tannehill they will not want to part with early draft choices.
New England: 100% likely to trade in round #1. The Pats are 90% likely to trade OUT of the round with one of their picks, and 10% likely to trade up a bit. By drafts’ end we expect multiple trades resulting in more than six picks this year and an extra pick or two next year, PLUS one trade with the Eagles!
NYJ: 60% trade UP, 40% stay where they are at. The Jets might target someone anytime from picks #8 through #14. We also expect their ten draft choices to end up being seven or eight by drafts’ end.
Baltimore: 75% stay where they are, 25% move out of round #1, as long as it’s not too far down.
Cincy: 95% stay in place for BOTH 1st round picks. Cincy doesn’t trade much on draft day.
Cleveland: They should start drafting for IMPACT, but GM Holmgren likes to fool around on draft day. We would stay and draft all 13 times. 60% they stay at #4, 40% they move back. Pick #22 or #37 will be likely used for trade bait, up or down.
Pittsburgh: 80% shot they stay, with 20% shot moving UP. Every once and a while they like to make a bold move. For the entire draft they will not trade much, if at all.
Houston: 90% stay, but there is a 10% chance they are targeting OL, CB or WR and could move up.
Indy: Locked in for QB Luck, and grateful they picked this draft year to have the #1 overall pick.
Jacksonville: Stuck at #7, they have reached while in the top 10 in the past. They say they want to trade down, but the draft team is not good at that. We’ll say 60% stay, 25% move UP, 15% move down. Later they will trade up, and later they will also select some small school long shots.
Tennessee: Likely to stay right where they are.
Denver: They need Defensive Line help in the worst way. 85% chance they stay, with a 15% chance they need to move up to get a DL of their choice if they is a run on DL early.
Kansas City: 90% chance they stay, but that 10% chance to move UP is if they love Tannehill and decide either to go ahead of Miami, or trade to #9 or #10 if Miami passes on Tannehill.
Oakland: Does not pick until #95. They’ll be sleeping in on draft day.
San Diego: AJ Smith WILL trade UP, either at #18 or #49. There is a near 50% chance that he will sacrifice a high 2013 draft choice. His future as GM depends on THIS year, so he won’t care much about 2013 at this point.
Dallas: Jerry has not traded as much lately. We think there is a 90% chance they stay at #14. Dallas may trade later in this draft.
NYG: 90 to 95% chance they make a pick at #32.
Philly: They could trade up or down at #15. We expect five or six draft day trades (one with New England), with at least one 2013 3rd or 4th round choice added. As of 4/17/12, we say 50% UP, 30% stay at #15, 20% down.
Washington: Locked in at #2 with one of our most favorite college players. Later, we expect they might trade down so they can acquire a couple of more draft picks.
Chicago: 90-95% chance they stay at #19. It is a new draft team however.
Detroit: Maybe one day they will draft a CB in the 1st round? If so, they may need to trade UP to get Gilmore or Kirkpatrick, especially with Jenkins dropping. We’d love to see that, but give them just a 15-20% chance of trading up at #23. We do think they may trade up later in the draft (probably to get a 2nd tier CB instead of these two?).
Green Bay: 70% chance they stay, and a 25% chance they move OUT of the round. We repeat, GB does NOT need 12 new draft picks. We would trade UP perhaps two or three times in this draft to get impact, including in round #1. We give them a 5% shot at moving up.
Minnesota: They want (or so they say) to move back from #3, but we think it’s 80-85% that they stay and draft OT Kahil.
Atlanta: No pick until late 2nd round (#55).
Carolina: Perhaps the most interesting spot of the draft as far as top 10 teams go. Carolina will stay at #9 or move back. KC, NYJ, and Philly are all possible trading partners. Longer shots are Seattle, SD and even Cleveland if they want a stud player at #4 and Tannehill at #9 should Miami pass on him. As of 4/16/12 we say 65% move DOWN, 35% they stay if they have someone in mind.
New Orleans: Does not pick until late Friday (#89). Likely will be cashing bounty check from the past two-three years instead of watching the draft.
Tampa Bay: Stays and picks at #5 as long as RB Richardson and/or CB Claiborne are available.
Arizona: 95-100% chance they stay and pick.
STL: Fisher and the draft team are sending out all kinds of signals, but we think the decision hinges on what Cleveland does ahead of them. They would like Claiborne, but may drop back if the choice is Blackmon or Floyd. Call this 5% up, 60% stay, 35% move back.
SF: We hit PERFECTLY the trade for Kaeparnick weeks before the draft of ‘2011. We could easily see team Harbaugh targeting someone and moving up in round #1. Right now we’ll say 35-40% move up but otherwise we think they will stay and pick.
Seattle: Seattle may be the most likely team to involve current players in their draft day trades. They can get a good player at #12, so we think it’s 70% stay, with 15% moving up and 15% moving down. we do expect a few trades in subsequent rounds of this draft.