2012 NFL Draft – Day One Review and Day Two Pick By Pick Preview

This is one of our favorite reports.  Hope you enjoy it, and feel free to comment back to us as well as pass it along to others!

NFL DRAFT – DAY TWO –  

This report resets the table for day two of the draft.  We’ll go pick by pick, with early impressions from day one, coupled with looks for day two of the draft.

Round One and Two Quick Thoughts:

  • Cleveland panicked, TWICE.  They traded four for one to go up one spot, and took QB Weeden too early at #22 with some nice talent left on the board.  Still, Richardson is a potential star as a rookie and Weeden is mature enough to unseat McCoy with better arm strength.
  • The position which went ignored early was definitely OL.  A rather low four OL were selected, with the 2nd OL coming off very late at #23.
  • Surprises in round one included Weeden, but bigger shocks were Irvin at #15 and Jenkins at #30.  Not surprisingly, Seattle and SF, two very unpredictable draft teams were the culprits.
  • Last year we listed 12 players up in this spot that would be high target picks.  All were gone by pick #55.  Normally our short list does not get taken that fast.  On our short list this year (those we like, by position) are WR Randle, TE Fleener, OG Glenn, OG Silatolu, DE Curry, DT Still, LB Upshaw, and for those craving CB, UCF CB Josh Robinson.  Curry may dip a bit.
  • Other players expected to go high might include: Troubled CB Jenkins, fast WR Hill, project DT Worthy, good LB David, top rated OC Konz, decent DL Reyes, and Clemson DT Branch.
  • Round two positional runs will include WR and OL.  Day two positional runs will also include CB and DL.

BONUS ADDITION:

Right at press time we have decided to add a column entitled “Experts Say”.  Four respected sources have offered up round two mocks.  We have added their thoughts to the bottom of each pick in round two, below.  Our analysis was completed PRIOR to compiling this information.  Feel free to have this report handy while viewing round two to see how everything plays out!

33: St. Louis

Round one impression: Jeff Fisher likes to do two things.  1st, he likes to stockpile picks, and so trading out of #6 was not a surprise.  2nd, he loves depth along the DL.  Brockers (14) is raw but can stop the run, something the Rams have not done well of late.

Round two look: The Rams may get calls for this pick, but with 33, 39 and 45 need to stay and pick.  They can solidify the OL right now, or look at draft dropper Upshaw as having some value.

 “Experts Say”: WR Hill (2X), WR Randle, OG/OT Glenn.  All three have talent but WR could be available later in the round.

THE PICK:

34: Indy

Round one impression: Drafting QB Luck (1) was easy.  Now let’s see what they do.

Round two look: Luck would love to see Stanford teammate TE Fleener here, but it’s time to get bigger on defense.  DL Branch, Still, Worthy, Reyes or NT Ta’amu are all on our radar screen.

“Experts Say”: TE Fleener.  All four “experts” agree!  The need is there, but what about DL?

THE PICK:

35: Baltimore

Round one impression: Traded down from #29, picking up this pick plus #98 in the early 4th round.  We “warned” readers about their trade out of the 1st round tendency.

Round two look: A recurring theme in this round might be all the talent left along the OL, the remaining possibilities along the DL, and the next wave of risky CB’s.  OG Silatolu would fit here.

 “Experts Say”: OC Konz (3X), OT Martin.  Konz was linked to them at #29.  He’s the favorite.

THE PICK:

36: Denver

Round one impression: AWFUL!  Denver traded down twice, so far adding 36 and 101 for pick 25.  Denver’s trade with Tampa (31, 126 for 36, 101) represented negative value!

Round two look: So far they have yet to miss on a DT, as none were selected between picks 25 and 32.  They missed DE’s Perry and Mercilus.  They need multiple bodies along the DL.

 “Experts Say”: DT Reyes (3X), DT Worthy.  Denver has to make DT an immediate priority.

THE PICK:

37: Cleveland

Round one impression: We love Richardson (4), and think Weeden (22) may unseat McCoy, although that’s not a given.  What we dislike is giving so much (118, 139, 211) to move up one spot, and not using #22 on a different player.  With little competition for QB this early, we would have stayed at #4, using picks to move up from #37 to get Weeden, as we could have easily outbid Tampa to get to #31.

Round two look: They could go WR (our choice, they need multiple picks here), but OG and RT need some help as well and nice talent remains at each spot.

 “Experts Say”: WR Randle (2X), OT Martin, OG/OT Glenn.  These picks again make sense.

THE PICK:

38: Jacksonville

Round one impression: We noted that the Jags have trouble moving down and find it far easier to move up.  Trading 7, 101, 228 to get WR Claiborne (5) was acceptable value, and fills a strong need.

Round two look: They have three choices: OL, sack help, or DB.  We think for this team adding someone who can get to opposing QB’s makes the most sense, although there may still be OL value.

 “Experts Say”: DE Branch (2X), CB Robinson, OLB/DE Upshaw: The target areas make sense, but the Jags are not that predictable after the 1st round.

THE PICK:

39: St. Louis

Round one impression: See Pick #33, above.

Round two look: This round must see them get an OG, with one of the other picks for an OLB.  LB David might be an excellent look here.

“Experts Say”: OG/OT Glenn (2X), CB Jenkins, WR Hill.  These players all have talent.

THE PICK:

40: Carolina

Round one impression: No one had LB Kuechly (9) going here!  OLB is a need and Kuechly can play there but may be best suited for ILB.  We’re disappointed they didn’t try to trade down a bit, recouping their lost 3rd round pick.

Round two look: The Panthers next pick at 104 so trading down should be an option.  There are many needs still left to be filled, so the most important thing is to get a highly rated player!

 “Experts Say”: DT Still, DT Worthy, CB Trumaine Johnson, WR Jeffrey.  We could live with any of the four, but for THIS team, talented but raw CB Johnson may be too much of a reach.

THE PICK:

41: Buffalo

Round one impression: It became evident that the Bills wanted Kalil but not Reiff (short arms).  Gilmore (10) was nearly as high a need and the supply and demand at CB was such that Buffalo needed to act early.

Round two look: They still need to select either OL or OLB before looking at the deep WR crop.

 “Experts Say”: OT Martin (2X), WR Quick, OT Adams.  Quick is no different than a dozen other WR’s at this point.  We rate Adams and Martin about the same.

THE PICK:

42: Miami

Round one impression: There really was no choice.  The city cried out for QB.  Hopefully Tannehill (8) can live up to expectations while at the same time not being forced to start as a rookie.

Round two look: We’d look either at WR or OL.  Maybe LSU WR Randle will still be on the board.

 “Experts Say”: OT Massie (2X), WR Jeffrey, DE Branch.  Can Miami take any of these players and fix work ethic flaws?  All four of these picks have that as an issue.  Maybe they need to go safer here.

THE PICK:

43: Seattle

Round one impression: What was that!  Seattle traded down from #12, acquiring picks 15, 114, and 172 and that was fine, but OLB/DE Irvin was selected way too early!  He started six games in college, and has much to learn.  He can be a situational pass rusher as a rookie, but also could have been drafted at #25.  In fact, the over-under on his draft pick selection was a whopping 54 ½.  Our Intel said he was going between 27 and 35, and we appreciate the $$$.

Round two look: Who knows?  They probably trade UP given the extra picks they have, but who for?  Could the target at least be a bit higher rated, with some value?

 “Experts Say”: DT Worthy, OLB David, OLB Brown, LB Wagner.  Guessing what this draft team will do is not going to be easy.

THE PICK:

44: Kansas City

Round one impression: KC badly needed a NT and Poe (11) clearly is the NT mold of the draft.  Primed to make this workout warrior’s draft rating go down if he was selected by most teams, we probably elevate him because of the fit here.  Can his production improve?

Round two look: When should they look for a QB?  Maybe they wait now until the 2013 draft as we are not that high on the rest of this crop.  We’d go pass rusher or CB with this pick.

“Experts Say”: ILB Kendricks (2X), OG Silatolu, TE Allen.  Like we said in the opener, we write our full report BEFORE looking at the new mocks.  Silatolu and even Allen would help, but the needs we show run deeper then the positions given by the panel of experts.

THE PICK:

45: St. Louis

Round one impression: See pick #33, above.

Round two look: Have they addressed OG and OLB?  If so, then DT, CB or WR can be the pick here.

“Experts Say”: RB Lamar Miller (2X), OLB David, CB Fleming.  OLB David is the best fit.  We have too many CB’s rated ahead of Fleming to consider him in the 2nd round.

THE PICK:

46: Philadelphia

Round one impression: Philly coveted Cox for a week and feels good about only having to trade up three spots to get him (12).  The cost of 15, 114, and 172 was decent only because they kept picks 46, 51, and 88.

Round two look: With picks 46 and 51 the Eagles need to address OLB and OT.  Maybe they will trade back, but for us, we look at OT/OG Glenn, OT Adams, LB’s Brown, Lewis and Spence, at least for starters.  LB David can be included, but we suspect a few of these guys will be gone by #46.

 “Experts Say”: DE Curry (2X), OLB David, QB Cousins.  We’d pass on Cousins for this team.  The other two, or our players listed above would be solid fits.

THE PICK:

47: New York Jets

Round one impression: The Jets surprised us a bit by not trading up.  DE Coples (16) is another that we might raise in the rankings since he could thrive in a Rex Ryan system.

Round two look: Three top needs remain: WR, run blocking OL and a front seven run stopper.  There should be a few options in at least two of these areas.

“Experts Say”: WR Hill, WR Jeffrey, OG Silatolu, OLB/DE Upshaw.  This would be a big fall for Upshaw.  Silatolu would be a nice fit.  Jeffrey is highly rated by us, but may not thrive on this team.

THE PICK:

48: New England

Round one impression: SHOCK!  We knew the Pats would trade, but going up twice is amazing.  Perhaps they have found some of our printed articles?  They traded 27, 31, 93, and 126 for picks 21 and 25.  DE Jones is a solid player and less of a risk than other DL in this draft, but also has less of a ceiling.  LB Hightower, available after Pittsburgh went in a different direction is a great fit!

Round two look: Would you believe that this pick and pick #62 later in this round is all the Pats have left?  Some teams aren’t even drafting until picks 89 and 95.  OL and CB are areas they need to address, but now we think they have to find some trade partners to acquire a couple more picks, unless they can get a draft dropper at either position when on the clock.

“Experts Say”: CB Hayward (2X), CB Trumaine Johnson, OG Silatolu.  All players fit our need board.  They might be able to trade down for CB, but OL is going to lose talent.

THE PICK: 

49: San Diego

Round one impression: The hope is DE/OLB Ingram (18) is what English never became and is even better than that.  Ingram has experience but in all his time at South Carolina only started one season.

Round two look: It’s win now or else for GM Smith, so can we expect a trade UP?  The LT need is a big one.  Should WR Randle fall to this spot that would be a nice option.

“Experts Say”: OC Konz, OT Schwartz, NT Ta’Amu, CB Boykin.  As stated above, we don’t expect SD to stay at #49.  I’d like to see them move up for someone stronger along the OL or at CB.

THE PICK:

50: Chicago

Round one impression: The old draft team was “famous” for botching the 1st round, with seven of nine such selections busts!  The new draft team is off to an auspicious start, as DE/OLB McClellin (19) was selected at least 10-15 spots too high.  Some teams are not good at manipulating the draft board.

Round two look: The Bears could have had a stud OL and now must hope that one falls to them.  DB is an almost equal area of need but there is more risk involved here and we’re not sure this draft team can handle that risk.

“Experts Say”: WR Randle, WR Streeter, WR Jeffrey, CB Jenkins.  We’re not on the same page as the draft experts.  As it is, we’re pretty scared about what the Bears might end up with.

THE PICK:

51: Philly

Round one impression: See pick 46, above.

Round two look: See pick 46, above.

“Experts Say”: CB Jenkins, CB Trumaine Johnson, CB Josh Robinson, RB Pierce.  Except for Pierce, these picks are all very talented.  They don’t fit our primary need areas but Jenkins and Robinson have clear value for us at #51 for this team in particular.

THE PICK:

52: Tennessee

Round one impression: WR Wright (20) is a fine player but WR was not one of our immediate need areas for the Titans.  Perhaps they coveted CB Kirkpatrick but he was chosen at #17.

Round two look: The new draft team has several needs to fill.  Hopefully going with the best value will net them a solid player.  CB, LB and OG are three possibilities, but where they go is anyone’s guess.

“Experts Say”: DT Still (3X), CB Josh Robinson.  DT Still has value at #52.  CB Robinson fits a need and we like him, possibly as the best of the next tier of CB’s.

THE PICK:

53: Cincy

Round one impression: It sure seemed clear to me.  Cincy needed to address OL, CB and WR with picks 17 and 21.  OL was wide open.  WR was deep.  At CB, only Kirkpatrick was left on the board as a legit 1st round guy and if the Bengals waited until pick 21 they might miss him.  At +6.61 to 1, they took Kirkpatrick and boy is it fun to know what this team likes to do each and every draft year!  Cincy did get its OG next, but not before trading pick 21 for picks 27 and 93.  RG Zeitler is strong and can run block, but did Cincy make a mistake by not taking stud OG DeCastro?  Only time will tell.

Round two look: We “suspect” this is where Cincy gets its WR.  We’d like to see them look long and hard at RB and also for a draft dropping DL, with WR best filled a bit later in the draft?

“Experts Say”: OLB/DE Upshaw (2X), OLB Zach Brown, DE Curry.  Can Upshaw really last this long?  I think this is for a WR.  We liked Jenkins here but he’s in SF.  What about Oklahoma’s Broyles, who could use this year to rebound from injury but after that he’s a solid #2 prospect.

THE PICK:

54: Detroit

Round one impression: CHICKENS!  The Lions love to move up on draft day but couldn’t get ahead of Cincy to take CB Kirkpatrick.  Considering Seattle reached at 15 for their player, a trade with the Seahawks seemed possible.  Luckily for the Lions, OT Reiff (23) fell like all the OL in this draft.  Detroit’s #2 need was for OT.

Round two look: We’re waiting?  The two CB’s that strike our fancy here are CB Robinson or Montana’s Johnson.  Robinson is super fast and physical but a zone CB.  Johnson is borderline slow and raw but with upside.  Sorry Detroit, but it’s all developmental CB’s now with the top choices gone.

“Experts Say”: DT Branch, CB Boykin, OT Adams, OG Osemele.  Another OL?  One would think the Lions have multiple needs.  Please find a 2nd tier CB!

THE PICK:

55: Atlanta

Round one impression: No pick.  Traded their #1 pick last year to move up for WR Julio Jones.

Round two look: Atlanta needs someone along their OL that can help them pick up 3rd and short.  Adding a pass rusher is another option.

“Experts Say”: OG Osemele (2X), OT Massie, TE Allen.  OG Osemele is versatile enough to play OT.

THE PICK:

56: Pittsburgh

Round one impression: How about WOW!  If anyone has been reading the pre-draft materials then it’s already known how we feel about OG DeCastro.  This was the best pick in the 1st round!  Destined to get LB Hightower, even Pittsburgh changed gears once DeCastro (24) was available.  Great job!

Round two look: Pittsburgh took two CB’s in last years draft but we were not crazy about either one of them.  Unfortunately, there’s not much to choose from right now other than potential help.  This pick can go in many logical directions.  They include: DL, because of age; LB, due to recent cuts; WR, with the anticipation that Wallace is gone after this upcoming season, or RB, with major uncertainty here.

“Experts Say”: OLB R. Lewis, OT Adams, OT Massie, DT Thompson.  We suspect the pick could be for a front seven defensive player.  That’s not bad, but what about a rated RB?

THE PICK:

57: Denver

Round one impression:  See pick 36, above.

Round two look: Denver is looking at RB, but the pick really should be for another DL or a LB.

“Experts Say”: RB Lamar Miller, CB Trumaine Johnson, DT Thompson, QB Osweiler.  Denver needs too much help now to go after a QB in this QB weak draft.  Sorry, but adding multiple DL is our preferred drafting strategy for this team.

THE PICK:

58: Houston

Round one impression: Right away we described DE Mercilus (26) as “another toy for Wade Phillips to play with”.  The NCAA sack leader last year may thrive in Houston’s scheme.  As we said in our Intel report, Houston was looking at him as another Aldon Smith.  We still preferred WR Randle.

Round two look: They probably look DT, WR or right side OL where they lost multiple players.  OL and WR could be adequately filled with this pick and pick #76 if they choose the right players.

“Experts Say”: OT Adams, OT Sanders, OT Schwartz, WR Streeter.  Adams would represent value at this pick.  The other OT’s can be passed on at this spot.  WR Streeter is fast, but raw and should have stayed in school.  For THIS team we want a more polished WR.  Givens or Criner have possibilities.

THE PICK:

59: Green Bay

Round one impression: DE Perry (28) is not a surprise, but trading up was preferred, as Green Bay does not need 12 picks.

Round two look: We’re not sure Perry fills the run D need.  OL and RB are needs, but CB and safety represent more immediate needs.  CB would be our 1st look.

“Experts Say”: DE/DT Wolfe (2X), DL Reyes, RB L. James.  The “experts” say an interchangeable DL is the fit.  Reyes is better at stopping the run as opposed to Wolfe.  If we’re the GM this HAS to be the 1st of a couple of move ups to get more impact.  Please don’t stay with 12 picks.

THE PICK:

60: Baltimore

Round one impression: See pick 35, above.

Round two look: In addition to OL, Baltimore would be wise to target LB.  Other needs include DL depth and a decently rated DB.  LB’s tend to slip in the draft so OL at #35 and stud LB here can work.

“Experts Say”: ILB Kendricks (2X), Safety Janzen Jackson, WR Sanu.  Jackson is interesting but not our preferred look.  Sanu could actually be a great underneath complement to the speedy Smith and solid Boldin.  Getting a LB such as Kendricks best fits their needs.

THE PICK:

61: San Francisco

Round one impression: We said it in the preview!  As expected, the draft day team DID confuse the “experts”.  We like WR Jenkins (30), but not in the top 50!  Mel (sell out) Kiper noted that no one had Jenkins in the 1st round, but that he was a consideration at the top of the 2nd.  Thanks for lying!

Round two look: Like many teams, OL and DB are the need areas.  Can SF stay away from lower rated talent (last year four ratings of NR and just two players rated in single digits at any position)?

“Experts Say”: OG Osemele, OG Brooks, OG Silatolu, CB Hosley.  The experts hit our need areas just fine.  Silatolu was mocked a few times to SF at #30, so it’s doubtful he’s here now.  Let’s see what curveball SF throws here (do they trade up?).

THE PICK:

62: New England

Round one impression: See pick 48, above.

Round two look: As said earlier, New England has a pair of needs, but as of this writing, no more picks after this.  Closing up shop this early would be perhaps the biggest draft surprise of all.

“Experts Say”: Safety Taylor, CB Josh Robinson, OC Taylor, LB Zach Brown.  All four players have talent, and Josh Robinson would be a mini steal here.  Our Intel does show them taking a keen interest in the LSU Safety (Taylor).  This is a good draft if the Pats add a rated OL and DB somewhere in this draft (after a couple of trade downs?).

THE PICK:

63: New York Giants

Round one impression: We correctly pegged the NYG to go for RB help, but was mildly surprised they took RB Wilson (32) after coveted RB Martin (no matter what they say now) was gone, thanks to Tampa’s trade into #31.  Wilson is more of a risk-reward pick.  Coughlin won’t like the fumble issue.

Round two look: Probably this is for the best player available on their draft board, no matter the position.  There are no glaring needs, although they could draft DL in anticipation of Osi’s leaving.

“Experts Say”: TE Allen (2X), WR Sanu, CB Fleming.  The Giants resisted the urge to go TE at #32 and could do so here with the 2nd best TE on the board.  That would not be our preference however.  We would not lock into any of the players listed by the experts for this team.

THE PICK:

Below is the list of teams currently without picks in round two.  They will be listed in draft order using the same recap and evaluation process as the teams above.  NOTE: Our final report this draft season will be to send this document out one more time, AFTER round two (probably Saturday or Sunday).  We will at that time fill in the names of who each team selected, and our initial impressions.  Enjoy!

66: Minnesota

Round one impression: Minny “stole” three picks from Cleveland (118, 139, 211) just to go down to #4 and select OT Kahil, they guy they wanted all along.  They traded 35 and 98 to go up to #29 and draft the 2nd rated safety on most boards, versatile Harrison Smith.  Considering that the next rated Safety is not likely to come off the board until the 3rd round, Minny played the supply and demand game very well.

Pick 66 look: DT, LB, #2 WR or CB are all in play.

THE PICK:

68: Tampa

Round one impression: Just like Minny, Tampa traded back just a bit in the 1st round and traded up at the end of the 1st round.  Thought to covet Claiborne, the Bucs wanted Barron (7) instead.  Both are solid, but we felt CB was the bigger need.  Tampa really wanted Richardson, or at least some RB to hopefully replace Blount, who doesn’t seem to fit the new staff’s style.  RB Martin (31) was chosen ahead of the NYG in the hope that he can develop into an every down back.

Pick 68 look: LB is the clear leader in need.  We’d look OLB 1st and CB 2nd.

THE PICK:

69: Washington

Round one impression: Washington outbid Cleveland for RG III (2).

Pick 69 look: The Redskins have six picks left, starting here and continuing with picks 102 and 109 next.  The biggest two needs have been well documented by us and read OL and DB.

THE PICK:

80: Arizona

Round one impression: Larry Fitzgerald wanted WR Floyd (13) if he fell to them.  The Cardinals said they would take him if that was the case, but still used almost all their time before making the pick.  Arizona may now be four receivers deep.

Pick 80 look: Our top needs would be OL and OLB/LB.  We’re down in the bottom half of round #3 but typically, rated talent in these areas can be found in the 3rd round.

THE PICK:

81: Dallas

Round one impression: Dallas, like many other teams in this draft saw an opportunity to get a top rated player at a position of need.  Trading 14 and 45 to get CB Claiborne (6) was fair, and along with free agent signee Carr, makes the Cowboys much better in the secondary.

Pick 81 look: OG, DE and Safety are the primary areas of need right now.  DE is tough to fill this late, and the safety class is weak, so OG looks like the best option, at least at this pre-round two writing.

THE PICK:

89: New Orleans

Round one impression: No picks at all thus far, with the trade of the 1st round pick for RB Ingram last year, and the forfeiting of the 2nd round pick this year.

Pick 89 look: Luckily the Saints have no critical major needs, with OLB, CB and another WR on our short list of early needs.  Getting a decently rated OLB (Spence perhaps) is possible in late round three.

THE PICK:

95: Oakland:

Round one impression: No picks at all thus far, with the trade of the 1st round pick for QB Palmer, the trade of the 2nd round pick for extremely raw RB Jones, and utilization of the regular 3rd round pick for the selection of QB Pryor in the supplemental draft.  Yet another QB (Campbell) cost them their 4th round pick.  This pick is compensatory from the NFL and comes after round three is completed.

Pick 95 look: TE, OG, and RB for the offense, and a DL run stopper, OLB and at least one starting CB for the defense.  Free agency has not helped much from an impact standpoint.  Good luck!

THE PICK:

That’s it!  We’ll send out the report a 2nd time with our round two impressions.  Enjoy the rest of the draft!

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