2012 NFL Draft Round One Preview

2012 NFL Draft – Last minute thoughts for round one

There is less than 100 hours to go before the 2012 NFL Draft.  Here’s a short blog on a) what the team is thinking about and b) what WE would do at each pick.

1.                  Indy:

Intel: Taking Andrew Luck

US:  A) Prevent Jim Irsay from ever tweeting again

B) Take QB Luck

2.                  Washington:

Intel: Taking RG III

US:  A) Fire Mike Shanahan

B)    Take RG III and throw a party!

3.                  Minnesota:

Intel: Taking OT Kahil, but also considering WR Blackmon

US:  A)  Take OT Kahil

B)    Trade with Tampa to #5 (they go for RB) and take Kahil

4.                  Cleveland

Intel: Probably RB Richardson over WR Claiborne, but draft team is often indecisive and could try to get cute and trade down.

US:  A) Make draft team use all 13 picks WITHOUT trading

B)    Draft RB Richardson

5.                  Tampa

Intel: RB Richardson is their 1st choice.  CB Claiborne is their 2nd choice.

US:  A) Take CB Claiborne

B) Trade up to #3 if the price is reasonable and take RB Richardson

6.                  STL

Intel: Looking at WR Blackmon, WR Floyd, or trading down to get an impact DL/OLB.  Might also look at CB Claiborne but not RB Richardson?

US:  A) Take CB Claiborne if available

B) Take WR Blackmon, or trade back slightly and take WR Floyd, OG DeCastro or an impact DL

7.                  Jacksonville

Intel: Wants to trade back, but draft team not good at this.  Might go UP to get Blackmon or Claiborne.  Looking hard at DE/OLB Upshaw.

US:  A) Take WR Blackmon or WR Floyd

B) Fire the draft team if they do not take an impact WR

8.                  Miami

Intel: With his former college Head Coach now in Miami (Sherman), the Dolphins seem destined to take QB Tannehill.  If they pass, or if he’s chosen before #8 then Miami is looking DL/OLB, CB or WR.

US:  A) PASS on a QB, and take a WR or OG DeCastro.  OG is a vital need here and DeCastro      has Steve Hutchinson qualities.

B) Trade BACK a bit and then take Tannehill.  Franchise QB’s are hard to come by, but Tannehill is not the 2012 answer and may not be that kind of QB.

9.                  Carolina

Intel: Looking DL, maybe Cox.  Was looking at DT Poe but may have soured on him.  DL is the place they want to go.

US:  A) Trade BACK, but no later than #18 (SD), who could offer them a 2013 pick in the 1st round considering AJ Smith is in a win now or be fired mode.  Other trading partners include Seattle, KC, Philly and the NYJ, all who may have specific players in mind.

B) Either way, we look at adding an impact DL, although if we trade back CB Gilmore or CB         Kirkpatrick will be fine choices.

10.              Buffalo

Intel: All signs have pointed to OT Reiff, but my sources tell me that his short arms are a concern and they may be willing to look elsewhere.  Some people were suggesting WR Floyd.  They could look CB or OLB.  OT Reiff did NOT work out with the Bills!

US:  A) They don’t usually trade, but moving down to the teams’ listed above in the Carolina preview is fine.  They can get an OLB or CB at any of the trade down spots.

B) If they stay, OT is a need so OT Reiff, while a risk, is still a fit.

11.              KC

Intel: Considering OG DeCastro and LB Kuechly, although Kuechly did not work out for the Chiefs!  Possibly considering QB Tannehill.

US:  A) Take QB Tannehill if available.  For THIS team, we like the move.  Cassell will not get any better and KC has enough other parts to take a QB risk.

B) If not Tannehill, consider DT/NT, sack help, LB or OG.  Poe is a NT, but his bust factor is too high.  Plenty of other options exist in these areas.

12.              Seattle

Intel: No one really knows what this draft team will do.  LB Kuechly is the favorite, but we think they may go DL or a LB with more sack promise.  DE Coples would be interesting.

US:  A) With just six draft picks, they could trade down to as low as #18 and pick up another 3rd rounder, while still getting an impact front 7 player.

B) OG DeCastro could be considered.

13.              Arizona

Intel: Considering OL or WR Floyd.  DeCastro is in play.  An OLB is another option.

US:  A) Either DeCastro or an impact DE/OLB (preferably OLB) is our choice.

B) Could consider OT Reiff if Buffalo passes.  The OL allowed 54 sacks in ’11.

14.              Dallas

Intel: Safety Barron is the primary target.  We don’t believe the DL hype, but it might be in play, along with OL.

US:  A) Safety Barron or OG DeCastro

B) DL/DE is a need for us, so Ingram would fit.  We would strongly consider CB Gilmore or CB Kirkpatrick as well.

15.              Philly

Intel: Trading UP, with Cox or Ingram the likely target.  We are slightly discounting a target of ILB Kuechly (would move to OLB if selected here).

US:  A) DL recorded 46 of Philly’s 50 sacks in ’11.  We don’t need another at this time.  1st looks for us include an OLB, Safety Barron, OT Reiff or OG DeCastro

B) In the highly unlikely event all options above are gone, we would hope Cleveland or someone else wants to give us a #1 pick next year.  Versatile OG/OT Glenn would be a lower option for us.

16.              NYJ

Intel: Wants to move UP.  No one can tell you exactly who they want, though many think they know.  DL, LB and even WR (Floyd) could be targets.

US: A) FORCE the NYJ to draft all ten players, with NO TRADES.  After selecting 23 players TOTAL in five years it is time to add depth.

B)    Cross our fingers and draft NT Poe.  He is not our favorite, but really fits this team and has the mobility to occupy blockers and make the other players better.

17.       Cincy

21.       Cincy

Intel: We lump these picks together.  We believe WR is in their blood and they will look once here.  The other choice is probably between CB and OL, with DL next.

US:  A) As we’ve stated, signing WR Wallace away from Pittsburgh would have been a no-brainer for us.  You hurt a rival and help yourself, have the cap space, and STILL have a #1 pick!  WOW.  The other option is to trade 17-21 to go UP for RB Richardson.  You STOLE an extra #1 from Oakland in the Palmer move, so dealing it for a 3-down impact RB is the 2nd no-brainer.  This fits our #1 need.  They won’t do it, but as GM, we would!

B)    These are the positions and players on our draft board at 17/21: OG DeCastro, with OG Glenn farther down the list.  WR Wright, but not WR Randle for this team.  CB’s Gilmore and Kirkpatrick, but not Cincy CB Jenkins, who would be suspended eight times if drafted by this team!  DL/OLB, with names such as Ingram, Mercilus (lower), Perry (lower), Upshaw (likely gone), and Hightower.  This is a critical draft for Cincy.

18.              San Diego

Intel: AJ Smith, as mentioned, needs to win now or be fired.  He will look to trade UP if he can, and probably WILL make a deal.  Is their target WR Floyd or Safety Barron?  These players, along with perhaps a DL/LB are the target areas.

US:  A) Do NOT trade.  Take DeCastro if available or OT Reiff if he drops.

B) SS Barron is next on our list.  We wait on WR, and look DE or OLB if the names above are gone.

19.              Chicago

Intel: It’s a new draft team, so they may tip their hand closer to draft day and after we publish this report.  CB is a good guess, although a sleeper guess is DE Perry.  The only other area that really makes sense is OL.  The long shot here is WR Wright.

US:  A) Consider a small trade back.  Teams wanting this pick would clearly consider a top CB as well as perhaps a DE with pass rush skill or even a QB.  We need more picks.

B) Stay and draft an OL draft dropper, or take Kirkpatrick or Gilmore.

20.              Tennessee

Intel: Once thought to be DE, we think they are looking hard at DB.  They too have a new GM, so more information will slip through to us nearer to the draft.

US:  A) Our #1 need is CB.  Draft Gilmore or Kirkpatrick.

B) If both CB’s are gone, I draft an OLB with sack skill.  Many are available.

21.              Cincy

Intel: See Cincy at #17, above.

22.              Cleveland

Intel: With this draft team we would be shocked if we were right on the pick.  A trade would hardly surprise us, even with 13 picks.  WR, QB, and even TE are in play here, or with a trade down, but almost any position is possible.

US:  A) Shoot the draft team if they trade DOWN (violating the rule set above, pick #4)!

B) We would “consider” a move up for Tannehill if he got past KC at #11, but prefer to have added RB Richardson early and either WR Wright or an impact DL/OLB here.

23.              Detroit

Intel: They are thinking OL, DL or CB.  As Harry Hoo in Get Smart said, “Amazing”.

US:  A) Draft CB Kirkpatrick or CB Gilmore.

B) Do whatever it takes to draft CB Kirkpatrick or CB Gilmore.  If that does not happen, then the only thing we can do is repeat what we said in out 2011 NFL Draft Review.  Here it is:

As for CB, we were just informed of the real reason behind Detroit’s reluctance to EVER address this absolutely vital NFL position.  Michigan statute 25-AB179254633.2 reads as follows: It is forbidden by law for any professional football franchise in the state of Michigan to engage in the procurement of (talented) players whose sole purpose is to defend against the forward pass, which is now considered a legal maneuver in the game of professional football.  The penalty for such an action will be at a minimum 30 lashes, and at a maximum the team in question may be sentenced to playing additional games during the month of January.  Now we know!

24.              Pittsburgh

Intel: LB Hightower is getting the press, but another DL/OLB or an OL is possible.

US:  A) We’d prefer CB Gilmore or CB Kirkpatrick, even if it meant trading UP.  This team can handle the move up, just like they did a few years ago for Polamalu.

B)  Yes, we would consider DL or ILB Hightower, but a draft dropping OL would also receive strong consideration.

25.              Denver

Intel: It would be a major surprise if DL was not the choice.

US:  A) DL, DL or DL.  There is no other choice.

B)    See A), above.

26.              Houston

Intel: The intel goes in several different directions, from OL, to DE (Mercilus, similar to what Aldon Smith did for SF as a rookie) and to WR.  For now, Houston seems content to wait and see what position offers the best value.

US:  A) WR Wright or WR Randle.  Randle is a 2nd rounder on most boards, but fits this team.  He has had subpar QB’s from LSU throw to him.

B)    We would strongly prefer the WR, since we’d asked for this forever.  Just look at the    options when stud WR Johnson went down.  Our much further down the list options are OL and DL, with DT Poe not necessarily a bad fit for someone like DC Wade Phillips.

27.            New England

31.            New England

Intel: We lump these picks together.  As we’ve said countless # of times, the Pats figure to use one pick and trade out of the 1st round with the other.  The Pats love versatility and so guys like OT/OG Glenn, DE/OLB Perry and DT/DE Reyes are possibilities.  Only Reyes is receiving attention thus far.  OLB/DE McClellin may fit.  We see them looking for a lower level CB and a versatile Safety after the 1st round.

US:  A) Trade UP!  Get impact!  Give us any one of CB Gilmore, CB Kirkpatrick, DE/OLB Ingram, or an Alabama LB.

B) Keep BOTH picks.  We have zero interest in trading out of the round.  These are the positions and players on our draft board at 27/31: OG Glenn, with OT Martin lower on our list.  DE/OLB Curry, DT Brockers, Still, or maybe a couple of others.  We won’t see a CB at 27/31, so that need has to be addressed twice later on.  Their two picks in the 2nd round must include a CB, and should include WR Randle or similar or NT Chapman.  That is how we would approach this draft.

28.            Green Bay

Intel: DE/OLB is the area that they want to address.  I am hearing the name of Safety Harrison Smith an awful lot as well.

US:  A) Have GM Ted Thompson sign a document IN BLOOD that says he will exit this      draft with no more than seven or eight picks (they have 12).  They could trade back ONLY if the bounty includes a 1st round pick in ’13 or possibly a 2nd round pick from a perceived “poor” team.  Signing this frees us to move UP in the draft, and we consider that in the 1st round for players such as CB Kirkpatrick or CB Gilmore, and yes, maybe a sack specialist.

B) If “forced” to stay at #28, we pick a DE with run stopping ability, or a sack specialist who has dropped or an OL who has dropped.  But we must get two CB’s     later, and trade up to ensure they are highly rated ones (Josh Robinson preferred).

29.            Baltimore

Intel: Most say it is a done deal for OC Konz.  We disagree.  We see them taking a draft dropper for value, trading slightly back, or to a lesser extent, slightly up if value exists.

US:  A) OG and 1-2 LB’s represent our top needs.  A draft dropping LB will be available.

B) Trade UP for DeCastro or the CB’s we have listed throughout this report.  Baltimore is so close, and can go for impact.

30            San Francisco

Intel: OL and WR are possibilities, but this secretive draft team could easily surprise.

US:  A) While WR and DL are needs, we get the WR later, and to get an impact DL we would have to trade up.  We look at OL 1st (too many sacks allowed) and DL 2nd.

B) Have a long discussion with Harbaugh about CB and include troubled CB Jenkins in the mix.  Trading up is an option for the top CB’s or DeCastro, or maybe take OC Konz?

31.           New England

Intel: See New England at #27, above.

32.           NYG

Intel: Hopefully not TE.  They have injuries that won’t heal soon, but what would they do with five TE’s in 2013?  They will lose DL/OLB after 2012 so this could be the target area.

US:  A) There is no need to switch from their best player available approach.  OL, DB and even the front seven on D are all in play.

B) If not satisfied, a RB fits perfectly in this spot.

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